聚焦复合集流体，打造增长第二极。在消费电子领域，复合铝箔相较于传统压延铝箔优势明显，具有安全性、高能量密度、减薄等多方面特性，根据鑫椤锂电测算，目前价格是传统铝箔价格的2.9-4.6 倍，更适合用在对成本敏感性较低的消费电池上。手机端复合铝箔成本占比较小，薄机身长续航有望成为智能手机标配，下游接受度较高。目前复合铝箔竞争者较少，产能率先落地将抢占高地，可川科技已将规模化生产线的试产产品向客户送样验证，并收到某国际知名消费电子电池生产商关于复合铝箔的首笔小额订单，一期规划8000 万-1 亿平方米复合铝箔产能，预计在2026 年前后完成产能投放。我们认为公司积累了众多消费电子、新能源汽车产业链客户资源，有望凭借规模化量产能力和卡位优势，进一步做深做透，挖掘新增长空间。Investment summary
New businesses collaborate with traditional businesses, and grow again with multiple banks. At the beginning of its establishment, Kechuan Technology focused on the functional device business, accurately positioned consumer electronics battery products, and expanded horizontally in the field of new energy power batteries and laptop computers over the past 15 years. Since then, performance has grown steadily. The compound growth rates of revenue and net profit due to mother in 2018-2022 were 22.61% and 20.18%, respectively. In 2023, while consolidating its main business, the company continued to expand emerging businesses. It successively established Kechuan New Materials and Interlei subsidiaries to focus on composite fluid collector R&D, optical modules, and laser sensor businesses respectively.
The basic market for functional devices is stable, and the consumer electronics and new energy industries are growing at the same time. Functional devices are non-standard products. They require joint product development and design solutions with customers. At the same time, they are key accessories for main products such as smartphones and power batteries. The stability of their quality directly determines whether the main product can be used normally. The requirements for product reliability are strict, and downstream customers are more sticky. The company follows industry trends and further consolidates the basic performance market. 1) The consumer electronics storage cycle is nearing its end. AI helps replace products such as mobile phones and AI PCs, and the implementation of hardware such as MR glasses and AI headsets is expected to maintain a high boom in the medium term; 2) Power batteries are accompanied by a steady rise in new energy vehicles. According to GGII, the installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to August 2024 was about 292.1 GWH, an increase of 41% over the previous year. The company is deeply tied to battery industry leaders such as Ningde Era and LG Chemical, and is expected to continue to benefit.
Focus on composite fluid collectors to create the second pole of growth. In the field of consumer electronics, composite aluminum foil has obvious advantages over traditional rolled aluminum foil. It has various characteristics such as safety, high energy density, and thinning. According to Xinyi lithium battery estimates, the current price is 2.9-4.6 times the price of traditional aluminum foil, making it more suitable for use in consumer batteries that are less cost sensitive. Composite aluminum foil on mobile phones accounts for a relatively small cost. The thin body and long battery life are expected to become standard for smartphones, and downstream acceptance is high. Currently, there are few competitors for composite aluminum foil, and production capacity will seize the high ground. Kechuan Technology has sent samples of trial products on large-scale production lines to customers for verification, and has received the first small order for composite aluminum foil from an internationally renowned consumer electronics battery manufacturer. The first phase plans 80 million-0.1 billion square meters of composite aluminum foil production capacity, and is expected to complete production capacity around 2026. We believe that the company has accumulated a large number of customer resources in the consumer electronics and new energy vehicle industry chain, and is expected to further expand and explore new growth space with large-scale mass production capabilities and card position advantages.
Investment advice
Kechuan Technology's functional device business is stable, expanding emerging businesses such as composite aluminum foil, laser gas sensors, and optical modules, and is expected to usher in a new round of performance growth. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is estimated to be 0.767/1.173/1.711 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is 0.091/0.198/0.404 billion yuan. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
The risk that downstream demand recovery falls short of expectations; the risk that the penetration rate of new products falls short of expectations; the risk that mass production of new products falls short of expectations.
