Key investment points

On January 1, 2025, Xiaopeng Motor released delivery data for December 2024 and delivery data for the full year of 2024.

In December 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered 0.037 million new vehicles, an increase of 82% over the previous year. Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 0.19 million vehicles in 2024, an increase of 34.2% over the previous year.

Leading the way with high-quality models, looking forward to a strong new car cycle in 2025

In December 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 36,695 new cars, up 82% year on year and 19% month on month. Among them, Xiaopeng MONA M03 delivered more than 15,000 units; Xiaopeng P7+ delivered more than 10,000 units. In 2024, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 0.19 million vehicles, an increase of 34.2% over the previous year. Of these, 0.092 million vehicles were delivered in the fourth quarter, mainly due to the rapid increase in sales driven by the launch of Mona and P7+. We believe that Xiaopeng has the ability to create hot models and achieve steady sales after completing management structure adjustments. In 2025, Xiaopeng Motor will revise old models such as the G6/G9, and at the same time fill the gaps in the current product matrix based on the Fuyao architecture, which is expected to start a strong new car cycle in the future.

The acceleration of equal rights in smart driving is expected to expand the stickiness of intelligent driving users

In December, the penetration rate of monthly active users of smart driving in XNGP urban areas reached 85%. Xiaopeng XOS 5.5.0 began public testing and launched a set of unbreakable software “parking space to parking space” functions. Xiaopeng launched an AI Hawkeye vision solution to fully solve problems such as light differences, and debuted on the new Xiaopeng P7+ model in October 2024. The Xiaopeng P7+ will be equipped with end-to-end AI smart driving as standard, with no optional, no subscription, and no payment. Xiaopeng Motor continues to iterate on car-side features. Xiaopeng XOS 5.5.0 is the 373rd OTA version and the 1149th new feature, which is expected to continue to build user stickiness.

Global strategy is accelerating, and overseas market sales are expected to increase

The global layout is accelerating, and overseas has become another driving force for growth. In December, Xiaopeng Motors completed the delivery of the 10,000th new car in Europe in Ebersberg, Germany, and officially opened its first flagship store in Australia. At the same time, Xiaopeng G6 was shipped to Australia on a large scale. Continue to expand overseas markets or achieve overseas sales.

Investment advice

Xiaopeng Motors is expected to achieve rapid sales growth in the future. We expect the company's sales volume in 2025/2026 to be 0.442/0.652 million vehicles, respectively. The corresponding revenue for 2024-2026 was 43.54/94.75/136.41 billion yuan, respectively, up 41.9%/117.6%/44.0% year-on-year. Net profit to mother was -6.2/-0.59/4.31 billion yuan, respectively. The launch of high-quality models is expected to usher in an inflection point in sales. Iteration of intelligent driving is expected to help the company reverse financial data, and Volkswagen cooperates to cash in on revenue through technological leadership. Maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Advances in intelligent driving and overseas expansion fall short of expectations, and competition heightens risks.