30年期收益率的4.85%被视为一个关键水平。一旦突破，可能进一步上涨至5%，Brean Capital固定收益策略主管Scott Buchta指出。他表示，不仅是财政部的债券发行，企业和政府关联机构(如SSA机构)也在集中发行债券。Buchta表示：“尽管年底市场存在大量闲置现金，但短时间内引入的大量期限债券对市场形成了压力。”Before this Wednesday, the US government plans to issue a total of 119 billion USD in Bonds.
According to Zhito Finance APP, before this Wednesday, the US government plans to issue a total of 119 billion USD in Bonds, and on Thursday, due to the USA mourning for former President Jimmy Carter, the Bond trading hours will be shortened. Carter passed away on December 29, 2023, at the age of 100. To honor this late president, the Treasury has moved the scheduled 22 billion USD 30-year US bond auction originally set for Thursday to Wednesday. Additionally, two auctions have also been rescheduled: a 39 billion USD 10-year bonds auction moved to Tuesday, and a 58 billion USD 3-year bonds auction held on Monday, but the results were relatively weak.
On Thursday, the US Bonds market will close early at 2 PM ET, while the Stocks market will be closed all day and will resume normal trading on Friday. This shortened trading week means the Bonds market needs to absorb a large supply in a short time, exacerbating market uncertainty regarding the USA fiscal outlook and the policies of elected President Trump. On Monday, the 30-year bonds yield temporarily rose to a high of 4.86% and then fell back to 4.836%, reaching its highest level since November 1, 2023.
The 4.85% yield on the 30-year bonds is viewed as a critical level. Once surpassed, it could rise further to 5%, noted Scott Buchta, head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital. He stated that it is not only the Treasury's bond issuance, but also corporations and government-affiliated agencies (like SSA agencies) are concentrating on issuing bonds. Buchta remarked, "Despite the large amount of idle Cash in the market at the end of the year, the large influx of term Bonds in a short timeframe is putting pressure on the market."
On Monday, long-term bond yields continued to rise as traders digested a Washington Post report about Trump considering the implementation of targeted tariffs. Trump subsequently denied this in a post on Truth Social. The yield on the 10-year benchmark bonds rose 2 basis points, approaching 4.62%, its highest level since December 27, 2023. Meanwhile, the main US stock indices performed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.06%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 1.24%.
"Thursday will be a strange trading day," said Thomas Simons, chief US economist at Jefferies Financial. He noted that the scenario of the stock market being closed while the Bonds market is only partially open is extremely rare. He believes that if the 30-year bonds auction were still taking place on Thursday, the risk of issues, though limited, had been reduced by moving it to Wednesday. He added that macro investors might be more willing to participate in Wednesday's auction.
Despite this, Simons pointed out that given the market's real-time reaction to Trump's policies, it is difficult to make a comprehensive judgment on the demand for US Bonds. "The market's appetite may change at any time based on expectations of Trump's next move."
