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30年期美债收益率升至14个月高点,市场静候本周1140亿美债拍卖

The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to a 14-month high, as the market awaits this week's $114 billion Treasury auction.

wallstreetcn ·  Jan 6 21:47

Before the auction of 58 billion dollars in 3-year Treasury bonds on Monday, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly rose to 4.85%. Analysts believe that the demand for U.S. Treasuries will continue to be influenced by economic conditions, geopolitical factors, and risk sentiment, which may result in higher market volatility throughout the year. Since early December last year, this sensitivity has pushed the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries up by about 50 basis points.

As the U.S. government prepares to issue $119 billion in new government bonds this week, market tension has increased. On Monday, prior to the $58 billion 3-year Treasury auction, the U.S. 30-Year Treasury Bonds Yield temporarily climbed to 4.85%, reaching the highest level since November 2023.

On January 6, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. Treasury will also auction 10-year and 30-year bonds on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, with both auctions being held a day earlier than usual due to the funeral of former President Jimmy Carter. The rising U.S. debt pressure has further intensified market concerns about the potential for inflation to be reignited by the Trump administration.

The demand pressure for U.S. Treasuries has increased, and the market is facing high volatility.

Adam Kurpie, a strategist at Industrial Bank, stated:

“While we believe it is unlikely that the bond market will experience an investor boycott, we expect demand for U.S. Treasuries to continue to be influenced by economic conditions, geopolitical issues, and risk sentiment.”

They believe this may lead to the market's volatility remaining high throughout the year.

Since early December, this sensitivity has pushed the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield up by about 50 basis points to 4.62%. The U.S. Treasury Bonds nearly erased all gains for the year in 2024, ending with a slight increase of only 0.6%.

Furthermore, the rise in U.S. Treasury Bond yields has spread to other asset classes. Morgan Stanley's strategists pointed out that interest rates are the "most noteworthy variable" for the stock market in early 2025. In the Forex market, higher interest rates have also driven the strength of the USD.

MLIV strategist Garfield Reynolds stated:

"Bond investors may face a lose-lose situation coming from Washington."

The Trump 2.0 policy is approaching, and uncertainty is rising.

Previously, Trump's incoming administration clearly stated that it would focus on swiftly implementing many key legislative policies. House Speaker Mike Johnson also revealed that a comprehensive bill would be ready for Trump to "definitely sign before May," possibly by the end of April.

Today, according to Jiemian News, Trump's aides are exploring imposing tariffs on "all countries," but only covering key imported goods. Analysts believe this has somewhat alleviated the unease in the U.S. bond market, as it could lessen the impact on inflation, leading to a decline in U.S. Treasury Bond yields. The USD fell by 0.9% after the report, marking the largest drop since early November.

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However, some analysis pointed out that market uncertainty remains high, especially with the impending U.S. debt ceiling issue exacerbating market risks. Currently, the U.S. Treasury is preparing to use special accounting measures to avoid exceeding the debt ceiling starting mid-January.

Additionally, Jefferies Financial's Chief Economist Mohit Kumar also warned that:

"The hawkish stance displayed in the Federal Reserve's December meeting and concerns about the USA's fiscal situation will lead to upward pressure on interest rates."

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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