1. On January 6th (Monday), in Pre-Market Trading, all three major Equity Index futures of the USA rose. As of the report, Dow futures were up 0.30%, S&P 500 Index futures rose 0.70%, and Nasdaq futures increased by 0.98%.

2. As of the report, the DEGUODAXZHISHU increased by 1.37%, the UK FTSE100 Index rose by 0.11%, the France CAC40 Index was up 2.14%, and the Europe STOXX 50 Index gained 2.07%.

3. As of the report, Crude Oil rose by 0.35%, priced at $73.22 per barrel. Brent Oil increased by 0.34%, priced at $76.89 per barrel.

Market News

After the announcement of Trump's tariff policy, the market experienced a significant shock. According to reports, Donald Trump’s team is considering a tariff plan that applies to all countries but targets specific key imported products. If implemented, this plan would significantly reduce the 10% to 20% general tariffs proposed during Trump's campaign. Economists expect this move to increase consumer prices and distort global trade patterns. It is still unclear which industries or products will be targeted, but attention is expected to focus on those that Trump wishes to bring back to the USA. Possible focal points include the defense industrial supply chain and key Medical Supplies. Additionally, tariffs may be imposed on energy materials such as Batteries, rare earth minerals, and CECEP Solar Energy panels. Following the announcement, the USD continued to decline, hitting a low of 108.01 at one point, now reported at 108.08, while non-USD currencies all rose, and US equity index futures continued to increase.

The US Congress is about to officially announce Trump's victory, and Bitcoin’s price is approaching 0.1 million USD. As the US Congress is set to formally certify Trump's election as president, Bitcoin, the largest digital asset, has regained momentum, with its price nearing the 0.1 million USD threshold. On Monday, Bitcoin's price increased by 1.41% to 99,871 USD. As of last Sunday, the weekly increase in Bitcoin was 5.66%, marking the largest rise since November 24. As investors look to take profits, Bitcoin's record set in 2024 lost momentum by the end of December. Previously, traders were optimistic about the prospects of a pro-Cryptos White House under Trump, which helped the token price reach a historic high of 108,315 USD. The US Congress will hold a meeting on Monday to confirm Trump's victory in the US election.

This week’s market focus: US December non-farm payroll data is imminent, Fed meeting minutes attract attention. The most notable event this week is the US December non-farm employment report due on Friday. The market currently widely expects that the non-farm employment increase in December will slow to 0.153 million, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%. The minutes of the Fed's December meeting will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely analyze these minutes to gain insight into the Fed's thoughts on potential policy shifts. Any hints regarding the timing or pace of interest rate cuts could lead to significant market volatility. In addition, NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang will deliver a keynote address at the 2025 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Monday. Many Analysts believe this event could drive the stock price of this AI chip giant higher. It is worth mentioning that the US stock market will be closed on Thursday (January 9) in memory of former President Jimmy Carter.

Two Fed officials express hawkish views: the anti-inflation battle is not yet won. Two Federal Reserve policymakers stated last Saturday that they believe the Fed's task of controlling inflation is not yet complete, but also hinted that they do not want to risk harming the labor market while working to achieve this goal. The comments by Fed Governor Cook and San Francisco Fed President Daly underscore the delicate balance that Fed officials face this year as they seek to slow the pace of rate cuts. Last year, the Fed lowered short-term interest rates by a full 100 basis points to the current 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed's preferred inflation measure is significantly lower than the around 7% peak in mid-2022, reaching 2.4% last November. Nonetheless, this remains above the Fed's 2% target, and in December, policymakers expected progress toward this target would be slower than they had previously anticipated.

Trump 2.0 raises inflation concerns, traders are Bearish on the outlook for the US bond market this year. A series of strong economic data, Trump's Republican Party's significant victory in the elections, and the cautious attitude of Federal Reserve officials have led investors to reassess their expectations for Fed policy, causing weakness in the US Treasury market. The adjustment in interest rate expectations has had the greatest impact on long-term bonds, with the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rising to nearly 4.6%, about a full percentage point higher than the levels when the Fed first began to cut rates in September last year. The impact on 2-year US Treasury bonds is relatively modest, reflecting a shift in investor preference toward short-term securities anchored by the Fed's policy rate, which are less affected by long-term outlook changes. The resilience of the US economy and Trump’s tax cuts and tariff policies have put pressure on US Treasury bonds. It is reported that the US Congress will certify Trump's victory in the 2024 election on Monday (January 6) local time.

MLIV Pulse survey: US economic growth will boost US stocks and the dollar in 2025. According to the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, under the influence of Trump's policies, US economic growth will make US stocks and the dollar the biggest beneficiaries. The survey was conducted from December 18 to 31, 2024. Among 553 respondents, 61% indicated that by the end of 2025, due to strong growth in the US economy and corporate earnings, the S&P 500 Index will rise. Some believe the incoming Trump administration could act as a catalyst. At the same time, when asked whether Trump’s policies would lift or weigh down the dollar, or have no significant impact, about half of respondents indicated that Trump would have a net positive impact on the dollar due to the effects of his favored tariff policies. However, it is worth noting that 27% of respondents believe that the same tariff policies are reasons for the dollar's weakness.

Gold remains bullish in 2025: Wall Street investment banks predict gold prices will exceed 2800 USD. After a brilliant 2024, fund managers still see reasons to remain bullish on gold. Last year, gold surged by 27%, reaching an all-time high of nearly 2800 USD per ounce, marking the largest annual increase since 2010. The main factors driving up gold prices include substantial purchases by global central banks; interest rate cuts by the Fed; and gold’s traditional role as a safe haven in times of geopolitical tension. These drivers are expected to persist into 2025. Wall Street's sell-side analysts are overall optimistic, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and other top Wall Street investment banks, which forecast that gold prices will average an increase of 8% this year, reaching 2860 USD. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs does not expect gold prices to reach 3000 USD/ounce by the end of 2025, pushing this prediction back to mid-2026, due to the market anticipating a reduction in the pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts.

Stock News

Apple (AAPL.US) plans to widen its moat in 2025: In addition to the iPhone, more products are expected to be launched. Apple plans to release up to 20 products or more in 2025, including a new MacBook Air that may be launched as soon as this month, although service revenue will continue to be the main driver of growth. Despite the new iPhone likely becoming a bestseller for the tech giant again, Apple will also release a range of new hardware products throughout the year. According to some reports, the new 13-inch and 15-inch MacBook Air models equipped with the M4 chip are expected to be launched as early as this month. Bloomberg's senior Apple reporter Mark Gurman tweeted at the end of December on X that the M4 MacBook Air will launch ahead of the new entry-level iPad, iPad Air, and iPhone SE, which are expected to debut around March.

Paychex (PAYX.US) is reportedly negotiating the acquisition of smaller competitor Paycor HCM (PYCR.US). According to insiders, Paychex is in deep negotiations to acquire the payroll processing sector's smaller competitor Paycor HCM. They stated that a deal could be announced as early as this week. However, insiders also mentioned that nothing is finalized yet, and negotiations may still fall through. Data shows that as of last Friday's stock market close, Paychex had a Market Cap of over 50 billion USD, while Paycor HCM had a Market Cap of about 3.3 billion USD.

Apple (AAPL.US) supplier TDK plans to launch a new Battery to keep up with the pace of AI development. TDK Corp., one of the main suppliers of batteries for Apple iPhones and a well-known Japanese Electronic Component manufacturer, will launch an upgraded version of its latest product this year to help mobile devices keep up with the growing power demands of built-in AI. TDK's CEO Noboru Saito stated in an interview that the company plans to begin mass production of the third-generation silicon anode Battery starting at the end of summer. TDK's competitors LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI have also recognized the potential of silicon batteries and are developing such products for electric vehicles.

Important economic data and event forecasts.

Beijing time 22:45: Final value of the USA's December SPGI services PMI.

Beijing time 23:00: Revision of the USA's November durable goods Orders month rate (%), USA's November factory Orders month rate (%).

Beijing time 22:30: Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook gives a speech.

At 4:30 AM Beijing time the next day: CFTC will release the weekly positions report.

Pending, the USA Congress will certify Trump’s victory in the 2024 election.