此收购有望增厚公司利润，加强上海医药的循证医学及学术推广能力。根据公告，上海和黄药业2023 年收入27.0 亿元，净利润6.63 亿元，2024年1-10 月收入24.7 亿元，净利润6.26 亿元。根据公告，上海和黄药业在核心期刊发表2,800 余篇论文，有效提炼出麝香保心丸在临床医学的功效证据，得到临床专家的高度认可。我们认为麝香保心丸的成功经验将对公司心脑血管疾病领域的冠心宁片、银杏酮酯系列、养心氏片等潜力品种的二次开发起到借鉴作用。此外，截至2024 年12 月，上海和黄药业拥有近2,300余人的专业学术推广团队。The company's recent situation
On January 1, 2025, the company announced that it intends to jointly acquire shares in Shanghai Hehuang Pharmaceutical with the designated entity of Shanghai Gimpo Health Insurance Co., Ltd. Among them, Shanghai Pharmaceutical plans to use its own capital of RMB 0.995 billion to acquire 10% of the shares. If the transaction is completed, Shanghai Pharmaceutical will hold a total of 60% of Shanghai Hehuang Pharmaceutical's shares and implement a merger list.
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The acquisition is expected to boost the company's profits and strengthen Shanghai Pharmaceuticals' evidence-based medical and academic promotion capabilities. According to the announcement, Shanghai Hehuang Pharmaceutical's revenue for 2023 was 2.7 billion yuan, net profit was 0.663 billion yuan, revenue for January-October 2024 was 2.47 billion yuan, and net profit was 0.626 billion yuan. According to the announcement, Shanghai Hehuang Pharmaceutical published more than 2,800 papers in core journals, effectively distilling evidence of the efficacy of Musk Baoxin Pills in clinical medicine, which was highly recognized by clinical experts. We believe that the successful experience of Musk Baoxin Pills will serve as a reference for the company's secondary development of potential varieties such as coronary sinning tablets, ginkgo bilone ester series, and Yangxin's tablets in the field of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases. Furthermore, as of December 2024, Shanghai Hehuang Pharmaceutical has a professional academic promotion team of nearly 2,300 people.
Innovative pharmaceutical products are expected to contribute to the new volume. According to the company's announcement, in December 2024, the company's glutaric acid linalacide capsule (X842) was approved for marketing. It is a class 1 new-generation potassium-competitive acid blocker (P-CAB) oral drug introduced by the company and intended for the treatment of reflux esophagitis. According to the IQVIA database, the total sales of domestic proton pump inhibitor products in the hospital drug market reached 11.5 billion yuan in 2023, of which P-CAB products sold about 0.68 billion yuan. We believe this product is expected to further enrich the company's chemical digestive tract product line.
Xinhua Insurance is optimistic about the company's long-term development. In November 2024, the company announced that Xinhua Insurance would increase its holdings of 9.9998 million A shares and 1.5 million H shares through centralized bidding in the secondary market on November 12, 24. As of November 2024, Xinhua Insurance and its co-actors held a total of 0.149 billion of the company's A shares and 37.8959 million H shares, accounting for about 5.05% of the total share capital. We believe that Xinhua Insurance is optimistic about the steady long-term development of the company. It is expected to hold and share the growth dividends of the pharmaceutical industry for a long time. The insurance listing is also expected to introduce patient capital to reduce the volatility of the company's stock price.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We kept our net profit of 4.665 billion yuan and 5.133 billion yuan unchanged in 2024 and 2025, and introduced a net profit of 5.392 billion yuan in 2026. The current A-share price corresponds to the 2025/2026 price-earnings ratio of 14.8 times/14.1 times, and the H share price corresponds to the 2025/2026 price-earnings ratio of 8.5 times/8.0 times the price-earnings ratio. We maintain that A-shares outperform the industry rating and target price of $23.3, corresponding to a price-earnings ratio of 16.8 times/16.0 times in 2025/2026, with 13.8% upside compared to the current stock price; we maintain H shares outperform the industry rating and target price of HK$14.7, which corresponds to a price-earnings ratio of 9.9 times/9.4 times in 2025/2026, with 17.2% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
The growth of industrial potential varieties fell short of expectations, new product development fell short of expectations, and commercial repayment pressure.
