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特朗普政策会否引爆美国通胀?前FED主席伯南克:影响有限

Will Trump's policies trigger inflation in the USA? Former FED Chairman Bernanke: The impact is limited.

cls.cn ·  Jan 6 03:10

1. Investors are worried that the policies proposed by Trump will trigger inflation in the USA and disrupt the Federal Reserve's process of interest rate cuts; 2. According to former Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, Trump's policies will not fundamentally change inflation in the USA.

According to a report from Caixin on January 6 (Editor: Bian Chun), as Trump is about to start his second term, the impact of his policies on inflation in the USA has sparked widespread attention and discussion. Some investors are concerned that Trump's proposed policies, such as increasing tariffs and mass deportation of illegal immigrants, will trigger inflation in the USA and disrupt the Federal Reserve's process of interest rate cuts.

However, in the view of former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, the economic policies that the incoming Trump administration formulates will not fundamentally change inflation in the USA.

"I believe that regardless of the merits of Trump's policies with respect to public finance, their impact on inflation may be mild," Bernanke said during a panel discussion on inflation prospects at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association last Saturday.

Bernanke stated that the tax reduction measures from 2017 that Trump hopes to extend have basically been implemented, and that changes in immigration policy are a slow and uncertain process that will not have a significant impact on the overall economy.

However, Bernanke also mentioned that the crackdown on illegal immigration combined with import tariffs could pose problems for certain specific Industries, such as construction and Agriculture.

He pointed out that the impact of tariff policies is difficult to predict because it is uncertain whether Trump will use them for negotiation purposes or intends to keep them permanently. Another question is how large the scale of the tariffs will be.

Bernanke noted that since import tariffs can both reduce output and raise inflation, the Federal Reserve's response will not be very evident.

Unless some very unusual situations arise, including geopolitical risks, the inflation trajectory does not seem to fundamentally change, he stated. Overall, Bernanke personally believes that inflation pressures in the USA will ease in the coming months.

In the same panel discussion, former senior economist of the Obama administration, Christina Romer, expressed views similar to Bernanke's. He believes that extending tax cuts, new import tariffs, and restricting immigration will drive USA inflation to rise "slightly." He stated that the inflation rate "seems to be somewhat stagnant at" 2.5%, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.

Compared to economic policies, Romer is more concerned that Trump may take measures to weaken the Federal Reserve's independence, which he believes would lead to soaring inflation.

Harvard University economist Jason Furman also agrees that Trump's policies have a relatively small impact on inflation, only about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points.

The assumptions about Trump's policies have become a key influencing factor for Federal Reserve policy. In September last year, the Federal Reserve began its interest rate cut cycle and cut rates three times consecutively, totaling a 100 basis point reduction. Last month, the Federal Reserve enacted "hawkish rate cuts," further reducing rates by 25 basis points, but it is expected to cut rates only twice in 2025, halving the expectations from four cuts in September last year.

The Federal Reserve will hold its first monetary policy meeting of 2025 from January 28 to 29. According to the USA Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January is only 11.2%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is as high as 88.8%.

Editor/ping

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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