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决策分析:加拿大政坛出事了!美元强势难改,美联储纪要携手非农来袭

Decision analysis: There has been trouble in Canadian politics! The strength of the US dollar is hard to change, and the Federal Reserve's minutes are coming alongside non-farm payrolls.

FX168 ·  Jan 6 17:11

According to FX168 Finance News Agency (Asia Pacific) on Monday (January 6), Asian stock markets showed mixed performance as the market is set to welcome a week of intensive economic news releases. These data are expected to further demonstrate the relative superior performance of the USA economy, supporting the continued strength of the USD.

In light of various risk events, investors remain cautious, leading to mixed performances in Global stock indices. The MSCI Asia Pacific (excluding Japan) Index rose by 0.6%, having dropped 1% last week. #Decision Analysis#

Japan's Nikkei/Yen fell by 1.8% on the first trading day after the holiday, as Japanese government bond yields surged to their highest level since 2011. The South Korean stock market rose by 1.6%, despite the uncertain future of President Yoon Suk-yeol. The China Blue Chip Index fell by 0.1%, even though surveys showed that service sector activity grew at its fastest pace in seven months in December.

European STOXX 50 Futures rose by 0.3%, Germany's DAX Futures by 0.2%, and the United Kingdom FTSE Futures fell by 0.1%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures showed little change.

Political uncertainty remains in the market, as Canadian media reports suggest that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau may announce his resignation as early as Monday. However, this news seems to have already been digested by the market, and investors may welcome the situation being clarified through elections. As a result, the USD fell by 0.3% against the Canadian Dollar, to 1.4404.

This week's focus will be on the release of the USA's December Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday. Analysts expect job growth of 0.15 million, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. Prior to this, ADP employment data, job vacancy data, weekly initial jobless claims, and manufacturing, services, and consumer confidence survey data will be released.

If the data performs strongly, it would strengthen market expectations for limited further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market anticipates only a 40 basis point reduction in 2025.

Additionally, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting will be released on Wednesday, providing more details for the dot plot forecast. Seven policymakers, including Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, will also give speeches.

This week, inflation data from the European Union and Germany will be released, which will impact the prospects for whether the European Central Bank will continue to cut interest rates. Meanwhile, China will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Thursday, which is expected to support the argument for further stimulus policies.

In the money market, the USD remains at 108.870, rising nearly 0.9% last week, close to the high of 109.540.

The Euro is hovering around 1.0315 against the USD, close to a 26-month low of 1.0225. The British Pound touched an 8-month low of 1.2349 against the USD, currently slightly recovering to 1.2435. The USD against the Japanese Yen is limited by intervention risks, trading at 157.70.

In terms of CSI Commodity Equity Index, pressured by the strength of the USD, Gold prices remain around $2640.

Cold weather in Europe and the USA provides support for oil prices, but early gains subsequently faded. Brent Crude Oil fell by 16 cents to $76.35 per barrel; US Crude Oil dropped by 15 cents to $73.81 per barrel.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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