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大行评级丨瑞银:预期今年内房去库存趋势持续 偏好贝壳及华润置地

Major bank rating丨UBS Group: It is expected that the trend of destocking in the property market will continue this year, with a preference for KE Holdings and CHINA RES LAND.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jan 6 15:43  · Ratings

On January 6, Glorious reported that UBS Group published a report on Mainland Real Estate stocks, expecting several trends from last year to continue this year, including an increase in the proportion of second-hand housing sales, the rising importance of the rental market, continuous challenges faced by high-end malls, the rise of REITs in China under low interest rates, and a decrease in the impact of policies on the domestic housing market and Mainland Real Estate stocks. The bank expects the trend of destocking in the Mainland Real Estate sector to continue this year, with new residential sales area and new constructions expected to decline by 10% and 15% year-on-year, respectively, and first-tier city housing prices expected to drop by 10% year-on-year. The bank's latest inventory model indicates that the destocking process may be completed by the middle of next year, earlier than the originally expected third quarter of next year, benefiting from recent policy stimulus. The bank prefers KE Holdings, based on the structural trends of increased market share in second-hand housing transactions and the growth of the rental market. The bank also prefers CHINA RES LAND, based on capital rate squeeze and asset sales that release the value of the investment property portfolio.

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