On January 6th, the optimism in the cryptocurrency market continues to rise, and Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 threshold again. As of the time of writing, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$it rose by 1.33% to $99,673.76; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$it rose by 1.23% to $3,680.72.

Hong Kong stock market cryptocurrency spot and futures ETFs surged across the board, $Harvest Ether Spot ETF (03179.HK)$ 、 $Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$ 、 $CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$ 、 $ChinaAMC Ether ETF (03046.HK)$ Increased by over 7%. $Harvest Bitcoin Spot ETF (03439.HK)$ 、 $ChinaAMC Bitcoin ETF (03042.HK)$ 、 $CSOP Bitcoin Futures ETF (03066.HK)$ Increase by more than 3%.

Key focus

• In 2024, the transaction volume settled through the Bitcoin network will exceed 19 trillion USD, more than double the 8.7 trillion USD in 2023.

According to Cointelegraph, in 2024, the transaction volume settled through the Bitcoin network will exceed 19 trillion USD, more than double the 8.7 trillion USD settled by that network in 2023, reversing the downward trend in transaction volume that has persisted since 2021. Based on data from Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Research at mining company Riot Platforms, Bitcoin transaction volume peaked during the 2021 bull market at around 47 trillion USD and has seen a sharp decline in 2022 and 2023.

• Since last November, the total amount of BTC transferred to exchanges and miner outflow has significantly decreased.

The inflow of BTC to the Exchange (the total amount of BTC transferred to the Exchange) and the outflow from miners (the amount of BTC sent to the Exchange by miners) has significantly decreased since November 2024, indicating a reduction in selling pressure. According to CryptoQuant data, after experiencing a peak in inflow activity to the Exchange for about two months, BTC inflow to the Exchange reached a peak of 98,748 BTC on November 25, 2024.

In December 2024, inflows to the Exchange declined, with the total number of Bitcoins sent to the Exchange ranging between 11,000 and 79,000 daily. The decrease in Exchange inflows is accompanied by a reduction in miner outflows, indicating that selling pressure from Bitcoin miners is easing, as miners often sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operation costs.

• Analyst: Bitcoin is expected to maintain range-bound fluctuations, potentially rising to $105,000 in January.

Bitfinex analysts expect Bitcoin to potentially rise to $105,000 in January. They stated that Bitcoin is likely to maintain a range-bound market trend as investors seek to deploy capital across a variety of different asset classes.

We predict that by the end of January, Bitcoin will fluctuate between $95,000 and $110,000. The inauguration of President Donald Trump on January 20 could serve as a significant catalyst for cryptocurrency prices. Expectations for the new USA government include more favorable cryptocurrency regulation policies and improved economic policies. However, according to Bitfinex analysts, Trump's inauguration might not immediately trigger a price surge in cryptocurrencies.

• Polymarket: The probability of Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025 is 40%.

Dennis Porter, co-founder and CEO of Satoshi Action Fund (SAF), posted on platform X stating that Polymarket claims the possibility of Trump establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve in 2025 is 40%. This probability will increase as states pass strategic Bitcoin reserves at the state level, where they will play a leading role from the bottom up.

• JPMorgan: A record $78 billion is expected to enter the crypto market in 2024.

JPMorgan's Global Market Strategist stated in a report that 2024 is a crucial year for digital assets, aided by Trump's victory, with a record $78 billion expected to flow into the crypto market. This capital inflow includes several key components: $27 billion in net inflows into crypto Funds, $14 billion invested in CME Futures, $14 billion raised by crypto venture capital Funds, $22 billion of Bitcoin purchased by MicroStrategy, and $1 billion of Bitcoin bought by Bitcoin miners. In other words, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin purchases alone accounted for 28% of last year's record inflow into the crypto market.

• Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker information for the ninth consecutive week, possibly indicating another increase in BTC holdings.

$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$ Founder Michael Saylor released Bitcoin Tracker-related information for the ninth consecutive week, however, this time unlike before, he stated: "Some areas on the website are not very accurate." (Note: Previously, the website would mark a green dot on the corresponding date after MicroStrategy purchased BTC, while the BTC price trend line would be in blue.) According to past patterns, MicroStrategy always increases its Bitcoin holdings the day after relevant news is released.

• Former Barclays executive: Bitcoin may have completed the 'correction wave' and could rise to $125,000 historic high in the first quarter.

John Glover, former Managing Director of Barclays Investment Bank, stated that based on technical analysis tools like Elliott Wave Theory, Bitcoin is expected to break through $125,000 in the first quarter of 2025. He pointed out that earlier this week Bitcoin fell below $92,000, but it may have completed the correction wave, and if Bitcoin breaks through $125,000, it could experience another pullback before moving towards the cycle top around $160,000.

Elliott Wave Theory posits that asset prices consist of five waves in the direction of the major trend and three corrective waves against the trend in each cycle, with each corrective wave followed by a wave in the direction of the major trend.

• JPMorgan: As the structural importance of Gold and Bitcoin continues to rise, 'devaluation trades' will persist.

According to Theblock, JPMorgan analysts state that Bitcoin and Gold are structurally becoming key components of investors' portfolios. JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote in a report: "Over the past year, the rise in gold prices has far exceeded the trends suggested by the changes in the US dollar and actual bond yields, likely reflecting the re-emergence of this 'devaluation trade.'" They further added that meanwhile, the record capital inflow into the crypto market in 2024 indicates that Bitcoin is also becoming a "more important component" in investors' portfolios.

Devaluation trade refers to a strategy where investors turn to assets like Gold and Bitcoin to hedge against the devaluation of fiat currencies, which is typically driven by inflation, rising government debt, and geopolitical instability. Analysts state that the structural growth of Gold in investors' portfolios is evident based on the amount of Gold held by central banks and private investors. This includes physical Gold, Gold ETFs, and other investment tools, which currently account for a significant portion of total Assets held by global non-bank investors.

Overall, analysts believe that as the structural importance of Gold and Bitcoin continues to rise, devaluation trade will persist. In October of last year, analysts held an optimistic view on the development of cryptocurrencies by 2025, citing factors such as devaluation trade and increasing institutional adoption.

• Founder of SkyBridge Capital: The USA government may increase its holdings by approximately 0.5 million BTC, but the Federal Reserve might be the "last hurdle."

SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci expects the USA government to retain its current holdings of about 0.2 million BTC before purchasing about 0.5 million BTC. Anthony Scaramucci stated that Tim Scott, chair of the USA Senate Banking Committee, and Scott Bessent, the USA Secretary of Treasury, are relatively supportive of cryptocurrencies. If Trump, Congress, and the Treasury reach a consensus, the Federal Reserve could become the last obstacle to Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.

• Hong Kong media: Local banks in Hong Kong have not yet acknowledged Bitcoin, and employers using Bitcoin to pay wages may violate the Employment Ordinance.

According to Hong Kong media Hong Kong 01, the Employment Ordinance in Hong Kong stipulates that wages need to be paid in cash, and cryptocurrencies are not legal tender, so employers paying wages in Bitcoin may violate the law. There are technology companies that have given Bitcoin as a New Year bonus or reward without major legal issues, but even if employees continuously receive Bitcoin as bonuses or year-end rewards, or declare Bitcoin income for tax purposes, banks will not accept it. Borrowers can only calculate DTI based on received salaries, bonuses, and commissions in legal tender.

Furthermore, local banks in Hong Kong currently only accept cash, stocks, foreign currencies, Hong Kong properties, funds, and Bonds. Some banks also accept policies with no premium financing as applicant assets, but there have been no successful cases for Bitcoin, because Hong Kong banks do not recognize cryptocurrencies. The only feasible method is to cash out cryptocurrencies and convert the funds as down payment for property or apply for a mortgage based on asset levels. According to the latest regulations, there is a chance to apply for a loan of up to 70%.

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Editor/rice