未来杜库达产能有望进一步释放，且不排除LEVY 税率进一步增加的可能。公司披露杜库达改扩建项目预算金额约2.48 亿元，约占杜库达总资产的14.4%，净资产的16.3%。据2024 年中报披露，该项目工程进度已达15%，随着时间推进，公司在印尼的优势产能有望进一步释放。LEVY 税率方面：印尼政府推动了由棕榈油种植园基金管理机构（BPDPKS）补贴给生物柴油生产商的机制，其补贴资金主要从棕榈油及相关制品的出口费（LEVY）中获取。以中期视角看，或有两方面因素对BPDPKS 基金净资产不利：1）B40 的实施增加印尼国内棕榈油投料需求，挤压出口，且国内补贴数量增长；2）原油价格走弱预期较强，棕榈油价格处上升通道，或导致单位补贴额增加。基于以上逻辑，BPDPKS 基金净资产下降的可能性仍在，进而在B40 计划推行过程中，不排除LEVY 税率进一步走高，这也将使得棕榈油价格或在未来保持相对强势。Incident: Indonesia's Chief Economy Minister said on December 19 that Indonesia will raise the palm oil export tax from the current 7.5% to 10%. Once the Ministry of Finance issues relevant regulations, the adjusted special export tax will be implemented. Additionally, the B40 biodiesel program will be mandatory on January 1, 2025.
The special tax on palm oil exports has been raised, the tax rate for refined products has not increased, and the company's production capacity in Indonesia is expected to benefit. Indonesia is the largest producer of palm oil in the world. According to USDA data, Indonesian palm oil production accounts for 56.4% of the world's palm oil production in 2023; it is also the largest contributor to global palm oil trade. Total palm oil exports in 2023 are about 27.5 million tons, so its industrial supply and demand and related policies have a profound impact on global palm oil price changes. Recently, Indonesia's Chief Economy Minister said that the government will raise the Levy tax rate on palm oil exports from 7.5% to 10%. Currently, the government will maintain the Levy tax rate on exports of downstream refined palm oil products at 3%-6%. This move may benefit local palm oil deep processing export companies with production capacity. The company's Dukuda plant in Jakarta, Indonesia is expected to fully benefit from the benefits brought about by rising export tariffs and rising palm oil prices. Compared with other domestic production capacity, it has a strong raw material cost advantage.
The reference price of crude palm oil and the comprehensive export tax rate continue to rise, and the price increase is strong. According to KataDataku data, the reference price of crude palm oil continued to rise from September to December 2024, from $839.53 per ton to $1071.67 per ton, an increase of 27.65%. Meanwhile, its comprehensive export tax increased by 124.76% from 114.96 US dollars/ton in September to 258.38 US dollars/ton in December. Taken together, the export price of Indonesian palm oil rose by about 376 US dollars/ton in the fourth quarter, an increase of about 39.35%. If the Levy tax rate for palm oil exports is raised to 10% in 2025, the total tax amount will increase by about 27 US dollars/ton based on the December CPO reference price. At that time, the company's advantage on the raw materials side will be further strengthened.
Ducuda's production capacity is expected to be further released in the future, and the possibility of a further increase in the LEVY tax rate is not ruled out. The company disclosed that the budget amount for Dukuda's renovation and expansion project was about 0.248 billion yuan, accounting for 14.4% of Dukuda's total assets and 16.3% of Dukuda's net assets. According to the 2024 mid-year report, the project progress has reached 15%. As time progresses, the company's superior production capacity in Indonesia is expected to be further released. In terms of LEVY tax rates: The Indonesian government has promoted a mechanism for subsidies to biodiesel producers by the Palm Oil Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS). The subsidy funds are mainly obtained from export fees (LEVY) for palm oil and related products. Looking at the BPDPKS fund's net assets from a medium-term perspective, there are two factors that may be detrimental to the net assets of the BPDPKS fund: 1) the implementation of B40 increases demand for palm oil in Indonesia, squeezes exports, and increases in domestic subsidies; 2) expectations of weakening crude oil prices are strong, and palm oil prices are on an upward channel, which may lead to an increase in unit subsidies. Based on the above logic, there is still a possibility that the net assets of BPDPKS funds will decline. Furthermore, during the implementation of the B40 plan, it is not ruled out that the LEVY tax rate will rise further. This will also keep palm oil prices relatively strong in the future.
Investment advice: In summary, there are still strong drivers for palm oil. The company's production capacity layout in Indonesia is scarce, and it is also actively expanding production growth. Both volume and price are expected to benefit the company. The company's net profit due to mother in 2024-2026 is estimated to be $221, 3.77, and 555 million yuan, respectively. Covered for the first time, giving it a “Recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Crude oil prices have risen sharply, the special tax rate for crude palm oil exports has been lowered, the export tax rate for finished palm oil products has been raised, implementation of the B40 plan has been blocked, the company's production risk, geopolitical risks, etc.
