钼：去库+顺价逻辑有望逐步兑现。2024 年国内钢招量增幅超过25%，需求景气下钼精矿价格稳步上涨，年度+13.18%至3605 元/吨度。目前钼原料库存已去化至低于去年同期水平。钢铁行业供需优化下，钼顺价逻辑有望逐步兑现叠加钢材合金化趋势（钼等元素含量提升），钼 “有量无价”的僵局有望打破；我们预计2025-2026年全球钼供需格局持续向好，价格上涨通道进一步明确。Investment logic:
Guocheng Mining: A private lead-zinc resource enterprise that invigorates lithium and other polymetals. The company's consolidated business is mainly lead and zinc (the main mine is Dongshengmiao Mining, 100% shareholding), and lays out the Sichuan lithium resources business in the form of a 48% shareholding in Jinxin Mining. The company is a private enterprise, and the shareholding structure is quite concentrated. The majority shareholders are good at asset restructuring. The control of listed companies, the Dasuji Molybdenum Mine, and Jinxin Mining were all obtained from the asset restructuring of the majority shareholder Guocheng Group. In December 2024, the company plans to sell 65% of its shares in Yubang Mining and acquire no less than 60% of Guocheng Industrial (the main business is molybdenum ore mining and sales). 2025H1 is expected to achieve project delivery.
With the new A-share molybdenum standard, the company's fundamentals have been significantly consolidated. In this round, the company restarted the acquisition of Guocheng Industrial's shares (not less than 60%), with consideration of 5.5 billion yuan, corresponding to only 4x PE in 23, and the acquisition method was cash and debt. The output of the Dasuji molybdenum ore controlled by Guocheng Industrial is about 0.008 million tons in 2023, with a grade of 0.13%, and the company plans to expand the mining license from 5 million tons to 8 million tons/year. Currently, the mining rights change procedure to expand the scope of the mining area; compared with the scale and grade of mines produced in the industry, the Dasuji molybdenum ore can be described as a mainstream molybdenum mine.
Molybdenum: The deleverage+favorable price logic is expected to gradually be implemented. Domestic steel production increased by more than 25% in 2024, and the price of molybdenum concentrate rose steadily under the boom in demand, to +13.18% per year to 3605 yuan/ton. At present, stocks of molybdenum raw materials have been reduced to lower than the same period last year. Under the optimization of supply and demand in the steel industry, the positive price logic of molybdenum is expected to gradually implement the trend of superposition steel alloying (increasing content of molybdenum and other elements), and the “priceless” impasse of molybdenum is expected to be broken; we expect the global molybdenum supply and demand pattern to continue to improve from 2025 to 2026, and the price increase channel will be further clarified.
Sichuan mining lithium resources are a new star, which resonates with the increase in quantity and cost reduction. The Li2O reserves in the Dangba mining area under Jinxin Mining (48% of the company's shares) increased to 1.12 million tons; the average grade was 1.33%, and the production scale reached 1 million tons/year; considering that the company expanded the Jinxin Mining License from 0.05 million tons to 1 million tons in less than two years, we believe that the 5 million tons/year mining license currently being processed by Jinxin Mining is also expected to proceed as scheduled; and the majority shareholders still have more than 20% remaining shares. The company will reduce costs by expanding mining and matching the scale of plant selection. The current price of lithium carbonate is 0.07 million yuan/ton; according to the business agency, the center of lithium carbonate price fluctuations will gradually rise and fluctuate in the 0.07-0.12 million yuan/ton range.
Profit forecasting, valuation, and ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 1.7/4.8/5.7 billion yuan, and the estimated net profit to mother will be 0.06/1.39/1.46 billion yuan, EPS 0.05/1.24/1.30, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 204/9/9 times, respectively. Considering the majority shareholders' asset injection and the gradual increase in the company's lithium ore, and both molybdenum and lithium prices are in an upward cycle, the company expects a double increase in volume and price; the company's 2025/2026 PE is lower than the comparable company average. The target price is 24.80 yuan, covered for the first time, giving it a “buy” rating.
Risk Alerts
Molybdenum and lithium prices fluctuate; project progress falls short of expectations; project delivery risks, etc.
