Independent brands continued to lead, and sales continued to grow rapidly in December

The company achieved wholesale sales of 0.2507 million vehicles in December, +16.55% year-on-year, -9.60% month-on-month, and achieved total wholesale sales of 2.6838 million vehicles in January-December, +5.12% year-on-year. Among them, independent brands sold 0.1989 million vehicles in December, +20.97% year over month, and achieved total sales volume of 2.2265 million units in January-December, +6.13% year on year; self-branded passenger cars sold 0.1505 million units in December, +31.99% year on year, -20.37% month on month, and 1.6683 million units in January-December, and achieved sales volume of 1.6683 million units in January-December.

The number of independent brand deliveries continues to increase, and the matrix of independent new energy models in overseas markets continues to be improved. Major models such as the Qiyuan Q07, Deep Blue S09, and Avita 06 have been unveiled one after another. Subsequent listings are expected to drive steady growth in the company's sales. New energy sold 0.0913 million vehicles in December, with cumulative annual sales of 0.7346 million units, an increase of more than 50% over the previous year. In December, Changan Qiyuan/Deep Blue Automobile/Avita delivered 0.0167 million/0.0366 million/0.0111 million vehicles respectively. Changan Automobile continues to increase overseas markets, and overseas sales are growing rapidly. In 2024, Changan Automobile's overseas sales volume reached 0.5362 million vehicles, an increase of over 47% over the previous year.

Changan Automobile was recognized by the capital market, and Avita and Kaicheng Finance successfully increased Changan Automobile's sales and improved operations, and was recognized by shareholders and the capital market. Avita's monthly sales exceeded 10,000 units in a row. At the same time, Avita is fully deepening its strategic cooperation with Huawei and is looking forward to taking shares, and its future development prospects have been highly recognized. Avita recently successfully completed Series C financing, raising more than 11 billion yuan in capital. Existing shareholders have greatly increased capital, strong support from state-owned capital, and active participation in market-based capital. Avita is also actively preparing to go public, with plans to go public in 2026. At the same time, Changan Kaicheng completed a round of financing of over 2 billion yuan at the end of 2024. Through this capital increase and share expansion, it introduced external resources to carry out diversification reforms, which will help strengthen the integration and collaboration of its industrial resources and accelerate the development of new energy, intelligence, and overseas business for commercial vehicles. Changan Kaicheng will also continue to promote equity financing and IPO listings in the future.

Steady growth in sales, maintaining a “buy” rating

The company's new cars have been released and delivered one after another, and sales have been growing steadily. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 158.695/178.925/209.974 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 4.89%/12.75%/17.35%, respectively; net profit to mother of 5.726/9.397/11.336 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding growth rates of -49.45%/64.11%/20.64%, and EPS 0.58/0.95/1.14 yuan/share, respectively. As the company's new car deliveries continue to increase, combined with deepening cooperation with Huawei, we are optimistic about the company's subsequent development and maintain a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Industry competition increases risk; risk of new car sales falling short of expectations; risk of increasing trade barriers in relevant overseas countries.