多项便利跨境电商举措，有望促进跨境业务发展措施提出“推动航空物流、跨境电商等企业深化合作,建立服务跨境电商专属平台,组建跨境电商专属运输机队(自购、租赁货机),开设跨境电商专属航线航班,服务上海口岸跨境电商货物空运需求。”2024 年前三季度，公司跨境电商业务实现营业收入44.5 亿元，同比+47.4%；占公司总体营收25.2%，同比+4pcts。措施中多项对于服务跨境电商增长需求的具体举措，有望带动公司跨境电商业务进一步发展。occurrences
On December 31, 2024, the General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued a notice on “Certain Measures to Further Enhance the Energy Level of Shanghai Aviation Logistics Hubs” (hereinafter referred to as “Measures”). The measures include 9 major aspects and 22 specific measures. Among them, China Eastern Airlines Group, the actual controller of China Eastern Airlines logistics, has 12 specific measures as the responsible unit.
The target for steady growth in cargo volume is proposed, and the ground service business is expected to benefit from measures proposed “By 2025, the annual cargo and mail throughput of Shanghai Airport will exceed 4.1 million tons”. We estimate that the compound growth rate of cargo volume is expected to reach 4% in 2023-2025. The company has core cargo terminal resources at Pudong Airport, and its competitive advantage is obvious. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company handled 1.536 million tons of goods and mail in Shanghai, accounting for 50% of the two shipments in Shanghai. The company's ground integrated services revenue and gross profit were 1.86 and 0.74 billion yuan, +6.5% year-on-year, and gross margin reached 39.7%. The proposed goals of the measures may help increase the volume and revenue scale of the company's ground services.
A number of initiatives to facilitate cross-border e-commerce are expected to promote cross-border business development measures to “promote aviation logistics, cross-border e-commerce and other enterprises to deepen cooperation, establish an exclusive platform to serve cross-border e-commerce, set up an exclusive cross-border e-commerce transport fleet (self-purchased and leased freighters), and set up exclusive cross-border e-commerce flights to serve the air transportation needs of cross-border e-commerce cargo at Shanghai Port.” In the first three quarters of 2024, the company's cross-border e-commerce business achieved revenue of 4.45 billion yuan, +47.4% year-on-year; accounting for 25.2% of the company's overall revenue, +4pcts year on year. Among the measures, many specific measures to serve the growing demand for cross-border e-commerce are expected to drive the further development of the company's cross-border e-commerce business.
Air traffic rights are always skewed to encourage an increase in the scale of freighters. The company's international competitiveness or measures to enhance its proposed “seeking preferential allocation of resources such as air traffic rights from the Civil Aviation Administration and increase the supply of certain daily cargo and mail flight schedules.” Furthermore, the measures also “encourage and support domestic airlines to expand the size of their cargo fleets; it is proposed that by 2025, the share of domestic airlines in the air cargo market outside Shanghai will not be less than 40%.” If the company gets more airtime resources and full freighter capacity, it is expected to enhance the company's competitiveness in the international air cargo market.
Investment advice: maintain a “buy” rating
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 25.239, 30.733, and 35.066 billion yuan, respectively, +22.39%, +21.77%, and 14.10%; realized net profit to mother will be 3.25, 3.694, and 4.119 billion yuan, respectively, +30.63%, +13.63%, +11.52%, and 3-year CAGR 18.29%, respectively. We believe that the release and implementation of the measures will hopefully enhance the competitive advantage of the company's cross-border air and ground services and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Implementation of measures falls short of expectations; global economic recovery is weak; overseas countries have introduced restrictive policies against Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms.
