Source: Zhithon Finance
Author: Xu Ran

$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Although the recently released delivery data reached a record high, it failed to meet Wall Street's expectations, reflecting the increasing difficulty in electric vehicle sales. The stock price has dropped more than 20% since its peak in December last year, briefly falling into a bear market. However, driven by Wall Street Analysts raising the Target Price, Tesla's stock price rebounded strongly on Friday.

Tesla reported on Thursday that it delivered 495,570 electric vehicles in the fourth quarter, setting a quarterly record. However, this figure is still about 10,000 vehicles lower than Wall Street's expectations. As a result, the stock price plummeted 6.1% that day, closing at $379.28, a 21% decline compared to the record high of $479.86 set in December.

Investor disappointment stems from multiple factors. First, Tesla's previous goal was to exceed 2023's full-year delivery volume in 2024, which meant approximately 515,000 vehicles should have been delivered in the fourth quarter, but the final gap was about 20,000 vehicles. Additionally, despite Tesla implementing various sales incentives (such as offering 0% financing on some models in the USA and a leasing buyback option), it failed to significantly boost sales growth.

On the other hand, consumer demand to purchase before potentially losing the federal electric vehicle tax credit did not soar as expected. Analysts generally believe that when President Trump takes office, he may cancel the car purchase subsidy worth up to $7,500 introduced during Biden's administration. Furthermore, although the Chinese market performed strongly, expected deliveries in the fourth quarter are about 190,000 electric vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of over 10%, weak sales in other markets like Germany offset some of the growth.

Despite this, Tesla's annual performance remains impressive, with a market cap increase of about $410 billion since the U.S. elections on November 5, and the stock price has risen approximately 51% cumulatively.

Currently, the market is more focused on Tesla's growth potential for 2025. The company plans to launch a new model with a starting price of about $30,000 at the beginning of 2025 to further expand its market share. In addition, Tesla is utilizing AI technology to train its self-driving software and plans to launch a self-driving taxi service by the end of 2025.

Wedbush Analyst Dan Ives stated: "Tesla's $1 trillion AI valuation has begun to be unlocked, and we believe that over the next 12 to 18 months, the company will approach a $2 trillion valuation." He assigned a "Buy" rating to Tesla with a Target Price of $515. In contrast, TD Cowen Analyst Jeff Osborne holds a "Hold" rating with a Target Price of $180. The difference in these Target Prices reflects the divergence on Wall Street regarding Tesla's valuation and future performance.

Despite delivery data falling short of expectations, Tesla's stock rose 8.2% on Friday, closing at $410.44, fully recovering the previous day's losses. The S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.3% and 0.8%, respectively.

Canaccord Analyst George Gianarkias raised Tesla's Target Price to $404 on Friday, maintaining a "Buy" rating. He noted that despite the disappointing delivery volumes, the upcoming new products from Tesla and its growth potential in the fields of electric vehicles, autonomous driving/AI, energy storage, and Robotics keep him optimistic.

Since the election, FactSet data shows that analysts have raised the average Target Price for Tesla from $235 to $300, indicating that market confidence in the company's long-term development continues to grow.

Editor/Jeffy