标普500指数2024年涨幅高达23.3%，该基准指数自1997-1998年以来首次连续两年年度涨幅超过20%。市场参与者仍预计2025年美股将再次上涨，但预计涨势将有所减弱。分析师指出，美联储暗示降息步伐将放缓，以及对特朗普政策全部影响的不确定性等不利因素将削弱美股涨势。History shows that the performance of the S&P 500 Index on the first Trading day of the year cannot serve as a barometer for the index's final annual ROI.
On Thursday, the US stock market ended the first Trading day of 2025 with a drop after experiencing fluctuations. However, investors need not worry, as history indicates that the performance of the S&P 500 Index on the first Trading day of the year cannot serve as a barometer for the index's final annual ROI.
Data shows that since the 21st century, the S&P 500 Index has had 13 instances where the return on the first trading day of the year aligned with the final annual performance, while there were 12 instances where it did not. It is noteworthy that in the past four years, the performance of the S&P 500 Index on the first trading day of the year has consistently differed from the final annual performance.
The S&P 500 Index surged 23.3% in 2024, marking the first time since 1997-1998 that the benchmark index has seen annual gains exceeding 20% for two consecutive years. Market participants still expect U.S. stocks to rise again in 2025, but anticipate that the pace of growth will weaken. Analysts point out that the Federal Reserve has hinted that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow down and that uncertainty regarding the overall impact of Trump's policies will weaken the upswing in U.S. stocks.
Keith Lerner, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist, stated, "We expect the stock market bull run (both in terms of price and duration, lagging behind a typical upcycle) to be sustained through continued economic expansion, which will enhance corporate profits, ease monetary policy, and provide ongoing fiscal support." He added, "These positive factors are partially offset by rising market valuations and investor optimism, suggesting that the threshold for positive surprises has increased. These factors, along with broader policy outcomes, indicate that this year's trend is more turbulent compared to last year. Investors should seek to capitalize on opportunities that may arise in a sustained upward trend."
David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation, stated, "Will this week's stock market performance provide clues for the remaining year? Probably not." He noted, "It is reasonable to assume that the recent volatility and downward pressure in U.S. stocks are largely the result of institutions dressing up their balance sheets and fund rebalancing as fund managers shift their assets from Stocks to Bonds."
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