欧元本周下跌约1.3%，在G-10货币中的表现排倒数第二。因有关欧洲经济增长前景和美国加征更多关税的预期令投资者感到不安。鉴于欧元是最具流动性的交易资产之一，如果欧元区的增长前景进一步走弱，抛售势头可能会增强。The euro started the new year poorly, and the Trade in the Options market to short the euro is active, betting that it will fall to parity with the US dollar or even lower in the coming months.
The Euro opened the new year with a bleak tone, and hedge funds believe that in the coming months, the Euro will quickly approach parity with the US Dollar, or possibly even lower.
Traders indicated that as the Euro fell to its lowest level since November 2022, both European and US leveraged funds adjusted their Euro Options positions on Thursday. According to Bloomberg's calculations based on custodian trusts and clearing company data, about 2.5 billion Euros in Options with a target price at parity or below were traded on Thursday, approximately four times the daily average of last month.
The Euro fell about 1.3% this week, ranking second to last among G-10 currencies. Concerns about European economic growth prospects and the expectation of additional tariffs from the USA have unsettled investors. Given that the Euro is one of the most liquid trading assets, if the economic outlook for the Eurozone weakens further, the selling pressure may increase.
Sagar Sambrani, a senior Forex options trader at Nomura London, stated: 'In addition to clients shifting their Euro to US Dollar downtrend targets for the next 3-6 months to the 0.97-1.0 range, we are also seeing new bets targeting similar price levels.'
As of the time of writing, the trading price of the Euro against the US Dollar is around 1.03, having plummeted over 1% to 1.0226 in the previous trading day, a level not seen in over two years.
Based on the commodities in the USA.Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.According to data from the CFTC, negative sentiment surrounding the Euro has been accumulating for some time. Since late September, hedge funds have maintained short positions on the Euro. Asset management companies have also reduced their bullish bets.
"The euro against the dollar now looks likely to drop below parity," said Derek Halpenny, Head of Global Markets Research for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa at MUFG Bank. "Tariffs and expectations of divergence in interest rate policies between the USA and the Eurozone could drive the euro against the dollar further down in the coming weeks."
Bloomberg Markets Live strategist Mark Cranfield said, "With large options positions intensifying the downward momentum of the spot exchange rate, the path for the euro against the dollar to fall below parity has become clearer."
Rabobank, Wells Fargo & Co, and Investec believe that the euro against the dollar could test parity in the second quarter. The last time this currency pair fell below this critical level was in 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered a European energy crisis and raised concerns about an economic slowdown in the Eurozone.
"Strategically, we continue to be bearish on the euro against the dollar, targeting parity in the medium term," wrote Danske Bank analyst Mohamad Al-Saraf in a report.
However, Nomura's Sambrani stated, "The euro"options pricingIt indicates that some Funds may want to bet on a recent rebound of the Euro.
Additionally, the slow stochastic indicator (a momentum indicator) shows that the Euro against the Dollar is in an oversold Range.
