新能源和出口销量增长强劲，2024 年超额完成销量目标。2024 年累计销量为2,176,567 台，同比+32%，超全年目标（200 万辆）。其中出口销量为403,923 台，同比+53%，出口强劲主要受益于东欧、东南亚、中东、拉美等市场需求拉动。1）分品牌来看，银河、领克、极氪销量分别为49.4 万/28.5万/22.2 万辆，同比分别+80%/+30%/+87%，吉利主品牌（剔除银河）销量117.4 万辆，同比+14%。2）分能源形式来看，新能源销量为88.8 万，同比+92%，新能源销量占比为41%，新能源销量增速跑赢行业。The company's recent situation
The company announced the 2024 sales report and announced the 2025 sales target.
reviews
New energy and export sales grew strongly, exceeding sales targets in 2024. The cumulative sales volume in 2024 was 2,176,567 units, +32% year over year, exceeding the annual target (2 million units). Among them, the export sales volume was 403,923 units, +53% year-on-year. Strong exports mainly benefited from demand in markets such as Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. 1) By brand, Galaxy, Lynk & ZEEKR sold 0.494 million/ 0.285 million/ 0.222 million vehicles respectively, +80%/+30%/+87% year over year, while Geely's main brand (excluding Galaxy) sold 1.174 million vehicles, +14% year over year. 2) In terms of energy, new energy sales were 0.888 million, +92% year-on-year, and new energy sales accounted for 41%. New energy sales outperformed the industry.
Galaxy's new car cycle is improving, and the NEV model matrix is fully rolled out. Since the launch of Galaxy's first GEA class A-class electric hybrid SUV model, Starship 7, on December 6, orders have continued to exceed expectations, with deliveries exceeding 10,000 in 13 days. The GEA architecture has multiple advantages such as strong expandability, shortening the development cycle, and saving procurement costs.
Currently, there are six models in the Galaxy series on sale, and the price of the main models focuses on less than 0.15 million yuan. We expect the Geely brand's competitive advantage in the mid-price segment will continue to strengthen as various Galaxy models are launched in 2025. Regarding the middle and high-end product lines, Lynk & Co., Ltd. and ZEEKR are gradually unlocking synergy effects in product planning, channels, supply chain management, etc. We are optimistic that Geely will refine the product layout in each price band of new energy, and that its market share will continue to increase.
The 2025 sales target is positive, which is expected to unleash profit elasticity. According to the company's announcement, the sales target for 2025 is 2.71 million vehicles, +25% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the sales targets for the Geely brand, Lynk & ZEEKR brand are 2 million/ 0.39 million/ 0.32 million respectively, +20%/+37%/+45%, respectively. The new energy sales target is 1.5 million, +69% year over year. We expect Galaxy to sell about 0.9-1 million vehicles, and the year-on-year growth rate is expected to double.
Looking ahead, as the scale effect of NEVs is gradually unleashed and GEA's cost advantage becomes apparent, we believe that NEV models are expected to gradually become profitable, compounded by declining share payment fees and stable export profits in 2025. We expect the profit side to unleash profit flexibility in 2025.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Due to increased profit certainty in the new energy sector, we raised 2024/2025 net profit by 3.6%/20.8% to 16.6 billion yuan/13.3 billion yuan, and introduced a profit of 14.6 billion yuan in 2026 for the first time. The current stock price corresponds to 2025/2026 10.0/9.0 times the price-earnings ratio. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and a target price of HK$18.60, corresponding to 13.2 times the price-earnings ratio of 2025 and 12 times the price-earnings ratio of 2026, with 32.1% upside compared to the current stock price.
risks
There is a risk of trade friction, increased market competition, and the development of the new energy business falls short of expectations.
