根据生态环境部发布的25 年制冷剂企业配额方案，巨化股份在多个主流HFCs 品种和R22 的生产配额居行业领先地位。巨化股份2025 年的R22/R32/R125/R134a 生产份额为3.9/12.8/6.4/7.7 万吨，占对应品种总配额的26%/46%/38%/37%，公司配额位居行业第2/1/1/1。整体而言，巨化股份在25 年的HFCs 制冷剂生产配额为29.95 万吨，居国内首位，占HFCs总配额的38%。公司作为龙头企业或将中长期受益于制冷剂高景气。Supply and demand continue to be tight, and the refrigerant boom is expected to continue
Since the beginning of '24, with the official implementation of the domestic quota system, the prices of mainstream third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) products have continued to rise. On December 16, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment announced the 2025 quota plan for domestic refrigerant companies. The quota for second-generation products (HCFCs) was drastically reduced, and the overall quota for third-generation products (HFCs) continued to be strongly restricted. We believe that demand in downstream refrigerant air conditioners, automobiles, refrigerators, etc. is expected to continue to benefit from equipment renewal and subsidy replacement policies, compounding supply-side constraints. Referring to the research report “Refrigerants: 25 Year Quota Announcement, Product Sentiment Continues” published by Huatai Research on December 18, the refrigerant supply gap reached 0.004/0.049 million tons in 24/25. Supply and demand in the industry are tight, and the refrigerant boom is expected to continue.
The company has leading domestic refrigerant quotas, and leading companies may benefit in the medium to long term
According to the 25-year refrigerant enterprise quota plan issued by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Juhua Co., Ltd. is leading the industry in production quotas for many mainstream HFCs and R22. Juhua Co., Ltd.'s production share of R22/R32/R125/R134a in 2025 was 3.9/0.128/0.064/0.077 million tons, accounting for 26%/46%/38%/37% of the total quota for corresponding varieties. The company's quota ranked 2/1/1/1 in the industry. Overall, Juhua Co., Ltd. had a production quota of 0.2995 million tons of HFCs refrigerants in 25 years, ranking first in China, accounting for 38% of the total HFCs quota. As a leading enterprise, the company may benefit from the high refrigerant boom in the medium to long term.
Refrigerants have been in a boom cycle for 24 years, and the company's profit is expected to continue to improve
According to Baichuan Yingfu, the price of R22/R32/R125/R134a on December 30 was 3.3/0.043/0.042/0.0425 million/ton, +69%/+149%/+51%/+52% compared to the beginning of the year. Under the resonance of supply and demand, the overall trend of second-generation and third-generation refrigerants has been booming since 24, and foreign trade prices have also gradually risen. Considering the sharp reduction in R22 quotas in '25 and the continuing tight trend of HFCs quotas, combined with support from air conditioning/automotive and export demand, we believe the company's profit is expected to continue to improve.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We maintain our previous forecast. The company's net profit for 24-26 is estimated to be 2/2.8/3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of +110%/+40%/+36%, corresponding EPS of 0.73/1.03/1.39 yuan. Referring to a comparable company's 25-year Wind consensus average of 21xPE, and considering that the company's quota lead advantage or strengthening under the 25-year refrigerant quota reduction, the company was given a 25-year 30xPE target price of 30.90 yuan (previous value was 24xPE, target price 24.72 yuan) to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: refrigerant industry policy changes, demand falls short of expectations, and progress of new projects falls short of expectations.
