Core ideas:

Domestic land wind prices have bottomed out and stabilized, the large-scale expansion of the deep sea is gradually progressing, and profits are expected to gradually recover.

Established in 2006, Mingyang Intelligence is the first complete machine manufacturer in China to start using floating fan technology. According to the company's financial report, the company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 20.237 billion yuan, -4.1% year-on-year, and net profit to mother was 0.809 billion yuan, or -34.6% year-on-year. At present, the price of large landwind machines has stabilized. Along with the high tendering boom, the profit of Landwind machines is expected to bottom up in 2025; the company is expected to use the first-mover advantage of semi-direct drive technology to take advantage of Landwind's key price inflection point and Dongfeng, where the concentration of the Seafeng industry is increasing, to achieve a sharp increase in revenue and profit.

Overseas wind power is on the rise, and a deep-sea floating strategy is being implemented in Europe. Multinational policies enhance the maritime landscape, the European region provides an important driving force for growth, and emerging markets are beginning to take shape. Domestic automakers have obvious price advantages in terms of electricity prices, raw material prices, and labor costs. Overseas, the company's business channel construction, customer technical certification, and order negotiation have created a second growth curve. The company has deep potential in the European market. The “European Wind Power Action Plan” opens up growth space for domestic OEM manufacturers. According to the Polaris Wind Power Grid and the European Wind Energy Association, as of 23, the cumulative European offshore wind power capacity is 33.8 GW, and the European target offshore wind power installed capacity is 76 GW in 2030. It is expected that in 25 years, the company will focus on developing the European market overseas. In terms of global share, according to GWEC data, the company added 2.9 GW of installed capacity last year, accounting for 27.5%, ranking first in the world.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 30.904/41.647/45.091 billion yuan in 2024-2026, up 10.9%/34.8%/8.3% year-on-year; net profit to mother is 1.416/2.584/3.159 billion yuan, respectively. Taking into account factors such as stabilizing the price of the company's domestic and domestic wind machines and expanding the increase in overseas markets, reference is that comparable companies gave the company a PE valuation of 15 times over 25 years, corresponding to a reasonable value of 17.07 yuan/share, which gave a “buy” rating for the first time.

Risk warning. Demand for offshore wind power projects falls short of expectations; technology iteration falls short of expectations; power plant transfer and development falls short of expectations, etc.