On January 3, the cryptocurrency market saw fluctuating trends, with Bitcoin hovering around $96,000. As of the time of writing, $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$it dropped 0.31% to $96,687.29; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$it dropped 0.17% to $3,449.85.

The Hong Kong stock market saw a slight increase in cryptocurrency spot and Futures ETFs.$Samsung Bitcoin Futures Active ETF (03135.HK)$、$CSOP Ether Futures ETF (03068.HK)$、$Bosera HashKey Ether ETF (03009.HK)$All rose by more than 1%.

Key focus

• Bloomberg: The new SEC chairman is "almost certain" to make the regulatory environment for the crypto market friendlier.

Bloomberg columnists Marcus Ashworth and Mark Gilbert provide key insights for 2025: fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a rollercoaster ride. Regarding the future of Bitcoin, they point out that Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman wrote on the Bluesky social platform last month that although Bitcoin has surpassed $0.1 million, there are still no legitimate use cases even after 15 years.

The recent surge in Bitcoin prices can be attributed to at least one identifiable cause: hopes that the Trump administration will adopt a more relaxed approach towards cryptocurrencies. This expectation is likely to be realized under the leadership of incoming SEC chairman Paul Atkins, who is believed to have a friendlier attitude towards the crypto market than his predecessor, making the regulatory environment almost certainly friendlier.

• Elon Musk mocked the complex tax issues of the IRS with graphics related to crypto investment.

Musk posted an image that comments humorously on the complex issues surrounding cryptocurrency investment and taxes. The image depicts investors experiencing high returns in different crypto projects, getting "rug-pulled," and attempting to declare tax deductions to the IRS, highlighting the high risks and complexities of the crypto field while also provoking discussions on tax issues in a satirical way.

• HC Wainwright: The total market cap of Bitcoin mining companies may exceed 100 billion USD by 2025.

The American investment bank HC Wainwright noted this week that Bitcoin prices are expected to reach 225,000 USD each by the end of 2025, implying a market cap of 4.5 trillion USD for Bitcoin, which would account for about 25% of the market cap of Gold. At the same time, HC Wainwright also expects the total market cap of Bitcoin mining companies to surpass 100 billion USD, mentioning that it regards MARA, RIOT, and CLSK as 'pure mining companies' and CORZ, BTDR, WULF, Hut 8, IREN, BTBT, and HIVE as 'mixed mining companies.'

• Satoshi Action Fund co-founder: At least 13 states are developing 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation.

Satoshi Action Fund co-founder Dennis Porter posted on platform X, stating that at least 13 states are crafting 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' legislation, with January expected to be a record month for Bitcoin policy.

• The estimated leverage ratio for all cryptocurrency exchanges has climbed to 0.26, the highest level in two years.

On-chain analyst Ali posted on X that the estimated leverage ratio (ELR) for all cryptocurrency exchanges has climbed to 0.26, the highest level in two years.

• Trump's second son met with MicroStrategy founder at Mar-a-Lago and mentioned 'Bitcoin'.

On January 3, news broke that Eric Trump, the second son of president-elect Trump and current executive vice president of the Trump Organization, met with MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor at Mar-a-Lago and tweeted, 'Two friends, the same passion: Bitcoin.' Michael Saylor retweeted this tweet and stated, 'Bitcoin is part of the menu at Mar-a-Lago.'

• MARA CEO: Individual investors should buy Bitcoin and 'forget it'.

Fred Thiel, CEO of Bitcoin mining company MARA Holdings, stated that individual investors should adopt a 'buy and hold' investment strategy for Bitcoin, citing the cryptocurrency's strong price performance over the long term. Thiel pointed out that Bitcoin has only dropped in price in 3 of the last 14 calendar years, which is why retail investors should consider buying Bitcoin and letting its value appreciate.

• Bloomberg: Cryptocurrency ETFs may surge in 2025, Gold ETFs sold off for the fourth consecutive year.

Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Athanasios Psarofagis revealed that over a dozen new funds centered on cryptocurrencies may appear in the ETF space by 2025, just one year after the establishment of the first-ever US Bitcoin ETF, with proposed products including:

1. An ETF launched by ProShares that tracks the S&P 500 Index returns based on Bitcoin; 2. Funds planned by Strive Asset Management and REX Shares aim to provide risk exposure for convertible bonds issued for companies buying Bitcoin; 3. ETF company Volatility Shares plans to launch inverse and leveraged Solana ETFs and a tool that uses futures contracts to track the sixth largest digital token, Solana.

In stark contrast to the aforementioned bustling scene, even as the Federal Reserve eases policy, investors have sold off Gold ETFs for the fourth consecutive year, and gold prices have retreated from historical highs as investors shift funds to other areas, including US stocks and Bitcoin.

• The payment system "X Money" from platform X is likely to launch soon and may integrate cryptocurrencies.

The latest code leak from Musk's social platform X suggests that its payment system "X Money" may be launching soon. Currently, X has obtained money transfer licenses for its payment subsidiary X Payments LLC in 39 states in the USA, but not all states are covered yet. X Money will allow users to tip content creators and may integrate cryptocurrency features. Analysts believe Bitcoin and Dogecoin could be among the payment options. X CEO Linda Yaccarino has confirmed that this feature will be launched in 2025, but the authenticity of the latest code has not been verified.

• MetaPlanet plans to exceed a Bitcoin holding of 0.01 million coins by 2025.

According to CoinDesk Japan, the hotel development and operation company MetaPlanet plans to increase its Bitcoin holdings to over 10,000 coins by 2025, aiming to rank among the top ten Bitcoin holding companies globally. As of the end of 2024, the company has already held 1,762 Bitcoins, valued at approximately 0.262 billion USD. MetaPlanet continues to purchase Bitcoin through the issuance of stocks and Bonds, positioning it as a core asset for corporate financial management.

At the same time, the company plans to transform its hotel brand into "Bitcoin Hotels" and launch "Bitcoin Magazine Japan" to promote Bitcoin education and popularization.

• In December 2024, the total financing amount for cryptocurrency companies reached 1.576 billion USD, a new high since October 2022.

According to data from DefiLlama, venture capital funds invested a total of 1.576 billion USD in crypto startups in December 2024, nearly a 98% increase month-on-month, marking the highest monthly financing amount since October 2022.

• Solayer has announced the establishment of a foundation and released the governance token LAYER.

Solana 的再质押协议 Solayer 成立基金会，并推出了 LAYER 治理代币。 “为了支持我们旅程的下一阶段，我们很高兴宣布成立 Solayer 基金会，这是一家独立的非盈利组织，致力于推动 SVM 扩展、即将推出的 LAYER 代币以及第一季权益领取的发展，”Solayer Labs 周四在 X 平台上发布消息。

• 12月芝商所比特币期货日均成交金额升至10.14 billion美元，创历史新高

据The Block Pro数据显示，芝商所比特币期货日均成交金额升至10.14 billion美元，创历史新高，增幅3.1%，但芝商所比特币期货未平仓合约两减少12.4%降至17.6 billion美元。 此外，比特币月度Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)'s latest data shows that investors are significantly reducing their net short positions in US soybean, corn, and wheat contracts, easing bearish sentiment in the market.量减少7.4%降至1.96 trillion美元，期权交易量减少28.4%降至79.5 billion美元；以太坊月度期货交易量增长9.6%升至1.03 trillion美元，期权交易量增长5.6%升至23.1 billion美元。

• 外媒：摩根士丹利的E-Trade正探索提供加密货币交易

According to THE INFORMATION, two insiders have revealed that Morgan Stanley's online stock trading division, E-Trade, is exploring the addition of cryptocurrency trading in response to a more favorable regulatory environment brought by the incoming Donald Trump administration for cryptos. If Morgan Stanley continues to launch this service, E-Trade will become one of the largest mainstream financial companies offering cryptocurrency trading, allowing this traditional brokerage giant to compete with Coinbase and other crypto exchanges.

• OSL：香港BTC现货ETF总资管规模占ETF市场的0.66%，上市以来增长约66%

According to statistics from K33 Research, the Assets Under Management (AUM) of Bitcoin ETFs in the USA, both spot and derivatives, has exceeded 129 billion dollars, surpassing Gold ETFs (128.8 billion dollars) for the first time. Zhang Yinghua, Chief Institutional Business Officer (CIBO) of OSL, stated that the total AUM of Bitcoin spot ETFs in Hong Kong currently stands at 3.087 billion HKD, representing 0.66% of the Hong Kong ETF market (463 billion HKD), with OSL partners accounting for over 60%.

Zhang Yinghua further stated that, in terms of market share, the current AUM of Bitcoin ETFs in the USA at 129 billion dollars accounts for 1.2% of its ETF market, while the same figure for Hong Kong is 0.66%. The ratio shows no significant difference in magnitude, and since the listing of Hong Kong Bitcoin ETFs on April 30, 2024, there has been a net inflow of approximately 380 Bitcoin, with total AUM increasing by about 66%, indicating that the impact of Hong Kong's crypto ETFs on the local financial market is equally noteworthy, along with significant potential for development.

• DWF Labs: Meme coins have transformed into vertical markets, and the growth trend will continue into 2025.

DWF Labs pointed out in its year-end report that Meme coins have transformed into a "complex vertical market". Meme coins represent an unprecedented opportunity to create value. The company stated that the combination of "social dynamics" and "financial markets" is not just a temporary trend, but represents a new investment paradigm. For example, Dogecoin, which was originally a satirical comment on cryptocurrency, has now developed into a complex vertical market that attracts significant capital flow and institutional attention.

In addition, DWF Labs noted that the market cap of Meme coins surged from 20 billion dollars to 120 billion dollars, a growth of 500%. The company believes that this trend may continue into the new year.

• In December, losses from cryptocurrency hacks and scams reached 29 million dollars, the lowest since 2024.

In the last few months of 2024, losses caused by cryptocurrency scams, breaches, and hacking gradually decreased, with December being the month with the fewest hacks for the year. Blockchain security firm CertiK stated in an X post on December 31 that the known losses caused by breaches, hacks, and scams in December were 28.6 million dollars, compared to 63.8 million dollars in November and 0.1158 billion dollars in October. According to the company, breaches accounted for most of the losses, with attackers stealing 26.7 million dollars in December.

• In December 2024, the trading volume after adjustments for stablecoins reached 1.41 trillion dollars, setting a new record.

According to data from The Block Pro, the adjusted trading volume of stablecoins in December 2024 increased by 20.3%, reaching a historical high of 1.41 trillion dollars; the supply of stablecoins increased by 1.7% to 170 billion dollars, with market shares of USDT and USDC being 79.2% and 18.3%, respectively; additionally, Bitcoin miners' income reached 1.44 billion dollars, an increase of 18.9%, while ETH stakers earned 0.342 billion dollars, a 30.2% increase. In December, a total of 47,064 ETH were burned on the Ethereum chain, equivalent to 0.1744 billion dollars. Since the implementation of EIP-1559, a total of 4.53 million ETH have been burned, amounting to approximately 12.8 billion dollars.

• Bloomberg Analyst: Blackrock's IBIT ranks third in the Top 20 ETF list for 2024.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas posted on the X platform that in the Top 20 ETF list for 2024, VOO closed at 116 billion dollars, 65 billion dollars higher than the old record; IVV closed strongly at 89 billion dollars, and Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF IBIT ranked third with 37 billion dollars.

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