扭亏后盈利大幅增长、平台化&规模效应有望拉升远期净利率。公司24H1/2023 年毛利率为16.0%/14.6%，24H1/23/22 年归母2.8/1.9/-1.8 亿元，24H1 净利率4.7%。公司依靠构建模块化研发平台及规模效应摊薄费用，24H1/23/22/21 年期间费用分别为6.0/9.5/8.0/5.5 亿元（其中研发费用分别为4.1/6.3/5.7/3.9 亿元），期间费用率由21 年的19.1%（研发费用率13.5%）下降为24H1 的9.9%（研发费用率为6.7%，研发费用大幅下降主要系前期大规模研发投入期已过，研发人员增速下降），我们预计远期净利率有望达8%。Incident: The subsidiary United Dynamics IPO was accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The company plans to issue no more than 0.71 billion shares, accounting for 10% to 25% of the total share capital after issuance (the current shareholding structure is 95% of Huichuan Technology's shares, and the two employees' shareholding platforms hold 5% of the total shares). It is proposed to raise 4.86 billion yuan to invest in projects such as “production and construction of core components for new energy vehicles” (total investment of 6.69 billion yuan).
Revenue is growing by leaps and bounds, multi-level products are developing rapidly at the same time, and the leading position is prominent. The company's revenue grew by leaps and bounds, reaching 10.4/9.4 billion yuan in 24Q1-3/2023, +96%/79%, and the 21-23 CAGR reached 80%. At the same time, the company's share of Huichuan Technology's revenue increased from 16% in '21 to 41% in 24Q1-3, accounting for about 13% of profit (24H1). In terms of product structure, the company has built a multi-level component structure. System-level, module-level products are developing rapidly at the same time. The 24H1 electric drive/power system sold 1.34/0.37 million units, with revenue of 5.14/0.88 billion yuan, accounting for 85%/15%.
According to the NE era, 24H1's share of electronic control products is about 11%, ranking 1st among domestic third parties (2nd overall ranking); drive assembly/motor/OBC share is 5.9%/4.7%/4.6%, ranking 4/5/8.
Significant profit growth, platformization & scale effects after reversing losses are expected to boost forward net interest rates. The company's 24H1/2023 gross margin was 16.0%/14.6%, and the 24H1/23/-0.18 billion yuan was returned to the mother in 24H1/23/22, and the 24H1 net profit margin was 4.7%. The company relied on the construction of a modular R&D platform and scale-effect dilution costs. The expenses for the 24H1/23/22/21 period were 6.0/0.95/0.8/0.55 billion yuan respectively (of which R&D expenses were 4.1/0.63/0.57/0.39 billion yuan, respectively). The cost rate for the period decreased from 19.1% (R&D cost ratio 13.5%) in year 21 to 9.9% of 24H1 (R&D cost rate was 6.7%. The R&D cost rate was 6.7%. The sharp drop in R&D expenses was mainly due to the fact that large-scale R&D investment in the early stages had passed, R&D (Personnel growth rate declined), and we expect the forward net interest rate to reach 8%.
I am optimistic about the increase in contributions from new customers and models, and the revenue is expected to be +40% to 50% year-on-year in '25. In terms of customer structure, 24H1's top five customers are Ideal, Guangzhou Automobile, Chery, Changan, and Geely, accounting for 33.2%/14.0%/6.8%/6.4%/6.0% of revenue, of which Ideal accounts for 23 years plus 13.2pct. We expect this to be driven by the volume of hybrid products & new models. At the same time, the company has closely cooperated with overseas car companies such as Volvo, Stellantis, Volkswagen, Audi, Porsche, and Jaguar Land Rover, and OBC and DC/DC have supplied many overseas brands in batches. In terms of model structure, the company currently provides power solutions for 170+ models, and we expect extended range & plug-in models to account for about 80%. Looking ahead to 25 years, the new models of Ideal & Xiaomi & Chery & GAC are expected to contribute further. Annual revenue is expected to reach 210 to 23 billion yuan, +40% to 50% over the same period last year.
Total assets & net assets are growing steadily, and debt ratios are improving. As of 24H1, the company's total assets/net assets reached 12.97/4.17 billion yuan, +0.68/0.29 billion yuan compared to 23 years. The balance ratio for 24H1/23/22/21 was 67.9%/68.5%/65.3%/70.4%, which is stable and improving overall.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the company's net profit of 5.03/6.01/7.18 billion yuan in 24-26 years, +6%/+20%/+19% over the same period, corresponding to the current PE price 31 times, 26 times, and 22 times PE, respectively, and a target price of 78.1 yuan for 25 years, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk warning: macroeconomic downturn, increased competition, etc.
