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大行评级丨交银国际:预计今年股市既有支撑也面临扰动 科技股关注阿里、腾讯、美团等

Major rating丨BOCOM INTL: Expect both support and disturbances in this year's stock market, with a focus on Technology stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, etc.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jan 2 15:26  · Ratings

BOCOM INTL issued a market outlook report, stating that the Global economy is entering a phase of cyclical transition. It is expected that the stock market in 2025 will have both support and face disturbances, suggesting a balanced allocation. Regarding Insurance: Both sides of assets and liabilities face high bases, but they have defensive and elastic qualities, recommending Ping An and Taibao; for Banks: Seize the high dividend main line, moderately increase elasticity, focusing on state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank; for Securities: The business trend is expected to improve, but valuations are reasonable, recommending CITIC SEC and Huatai.

The bank indicated that in the Internet Plus-Related industry, demand is recovering, and high-quality platforms with attractive valuations are favored. The impact of new policies on online and offline consumer spending may be realized quickly. The bank suggests paying attention to core businesses with stable growth, improving profitability, and the valuation repair opportunities brought by high Shareholder returns. The bank recommends focusing on Alibaba, Ctrip, NetEase, Tencent, TAL Education, New Oriental, Meituan, and the pullback opportunities of undervalued companies.

In the Real Estate industry, the bank expects a halt to the decline and a mild recovery. In the domestic property market, homebuyer sentiment is expected to mildly recover, with the fundamentals showing some improvement, and the transaction area rising 15% year-on-year. If the sales momentum continues, it will help stabilize the finances of real estate enterprises. As for the Hong Kong property market, some factors are showing signs of turning, helping to stabilize the Residence and retail markets, although caution remains for the office sector. Interest rate cuts are expected to be a positive catalyst in the next 12 to 18 months, with Link REIT being the industry favorite.

Looking ahead to 2025, with the improvement of range extender/hybrid technologies, BOCOM INTL expects the penetration rate of New energy Fund vehicles in mainland China to rise to 60% this year, and intelligent driving is expected to penetrate rapidly into the market below 200,000 yuan; by 2025, the penetration rate of Henry Hub Natural Gas heavy-duty trucks is expected to increase to 31%, with SINOTRUK's market share rising; the consumer sentiment for two-wheeled vehicles is warming, and the leading company Yadea's market share is expected to increase; it is estimated that from 2024 to 2026, the Global Battery demand compound growth rate will be 14%, and the industry's concentration will increase.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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