国联证券指出，考虑2024年LPR多次下调，上市银行2025年资产端收益预计仍将承压。根据我们的测算，重定价将导致上市银行2025年贷款收益率下行22BP左右，将拉低上市银行净息差17BP左右。负债端，2023年以来长期限定期存款挂牌利率下调幅度超100BP，根据我们的测算，仅3年期定期存款到期便能拉低上市银行存款成本约10BP，有望提振上市银行2025年净息差7BP左右，因此负债成本改善将成为息差表现差异的核心。此外，同业负债成本管控已落地，银行后续息差降幅有望收窄。China Mainland Banking stocks collectively fell. As of the time of writing, the Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (01398) dropped by 3.26%, trading at 4.89 HKD; China Construction Bank Corporation (00939) decreased by 2.82%, trading at 6.09 HKD; Bank Of Communications (03328) fell by 2.66%, trading at 6.22 HKD; China Galaxy (03988) declined by 1.26%, trading at 3.92 HKD.
According to Zhithong Finance APP, China Mainland Banking stocks have collectively declined. As of the time of writing, Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China (01398) is down 3.26%, trading at 4.89 HKD; China Construction Bank Corporation (00939) is down 2.82%, trading at 6.09 HKD; Bank Of Communications (03328) is down 2.66%, trading at 6.22 HKD; China Galaxy (03988) is down 1.26%, trading at 3.92 HKD.
On the news front, the interbank main interest rate bond yields have continued to decline today. Government bond futures collectively rose at noon, with the 30-year Block Orders contract rising by 0.79% and the 10-year Block Orders contract rising by 0.22%, both reaching all-time highs. CICC pointed out that the current government bond interest rates have already fully included the expectation of rate cuts. In the short term, the market interest rate trends will focus on the rhythm of monetary policy easing, public fund profit-taking, and the potential impact of the early issuance of government bonds. Subsequently, attention will be paid to the effectiveness of fiscal measures to stimulate price recovery.
Guolian stated that considering multiple reductions in LPR in 2024, the asset yield of listed banks is expected to remain under pressure in 2025. According to our calculations, repricing will lead to a decline of about 22 basis points in the loan yield of listed banks in 2025, which will lower their net interest margin by about 17 basis points. On the liability side, since 2023, the listed rates of long-term fixed deposits have been cut by more than 100 basis points. Based on our estimates, simply the expiration of three-year fixed deposits could reduce the deposit costs of listed banks by about 10 basis points, which is expected to boost their net interest margin by about 7 basis points in 2025. Therefore, the improvement in liability costs will be a key factor in the differences in interest margin performance. In addition, the control of costs for interbank liabilities has been implemented, and the subsequent decline in banks' interest margins is expected to narrow.
