出口高速增长，海外市场持续拓展。12 月公司实现出口2.5 万辆，同比+20.9%，环比-25.3%，2024 全年实现累计出口40.4 万辆，同比+53.3%。Incident: On January 1, 2025, the company released the December 2024 production and sales report. In December, it achieved sales volume of 0.21 million vehicles, +43.3% YoY, -16.0% month-on-month, and a cumulative sales volume of 2.177 million vehicles in 2024, +32.0% YoY, exceeding the 2024 annual sales target of 2 million vehicles.
December sales increased rapidly year over year, with annual sales exceeding 2 million units. In December, the Geely brand sold 0.157 million vehicles, +46.0% YoY, -17.7%, including Galaxy Series 0.069 million vehicles, +132.1% YoY, -7.7%, ZEEKR 0.027 million vehicles, +101.8% YoY, +0.7% YoY, 0.026 million Linker vehicles, +1.5% YoY and -20.2%. The cumulative sales volume of the Geely brand in 2024 was 1.669 million vehicles, +27.4%. Among them, the Galaxy series had cumulative sales of 0.494 million units, +79.9% year over year, the cumulative sales volume of ZEEKR was 0.222 million units, +87.2% year over year, and Lynk & Co had cumulative sales of 0.285 million vehicles, +29.6% year over year. The company's total NEV sales in December were 0.111 million vehicles, +93.1% YoY, -9.2% month-on-month, NEV penetration rate 52.9%, +13.6pct YoY, +4.0pct month-on-month. In 2024, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles was 0.888 million vehicles, +91.9% year on year, and the penetration rate of new energy was 40.8%, +12.7 pct year on year.
By 2025, the target is 2.17 million vehicles, and the transformation of new energy sources will be further accelerated. According to the company's announcement, the sales target for 2025 is 2.71 million vehicles, +24.5% year over year, of which the Geely brand (including Galaxy) is 2 million vehicles, +19.8%, ZEEKR 0.32 million vehicles, +44.1% year over year, Lynk & Co 0.39 million vehicles, +36.6% year over year, 1.5 million new energy sales, +68.9% year over year, and new energy penetration rate 55.4%, and +14.5% year over year. The company's 2025 sales target shows confidence in growth.
Exports are growing rapidly, and overseas markets continue to expand. In December, the company exported 0.025 million vehicles, +20.9% year-on-year, -25.3% month-on-month, and achieved cumulative exports of 0.404 million vehicles in 2024, or +53.3% year-on-year.
The company has launched 16 new models in over 40 countries, with a layout in more than 80 countries and regions, and more than 900 overseas sales and service outlets. In terms of new energy going overseas, the Linker Z20 made its world debut in Milan, Italy, and the new Linker 01 landed in Europe; ZEEKR has entered more than 40 mainstream international markets, with 538 stores worldwide. The company's continued expansion in overseas markets is expected to lead to a further increase in sales volume in the future.
Profit forecast: In 2024-2026, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 244.26, 339.17, 388.38 billion yuan, and net profit of 16.57, 12.13, and 15.66 billion yuan to mother, giving it a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of downstream demand falling short of expectations, risk of increased industry competition, risk of fluctuating raw material prices, etc.
