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研报掘金丨中金:高股息策略仍是2025年内银股交易的主要逻辑 推荐国有大行及招行

Research Reports Gold Digging | CICC: The high dividend strategy remains the main logic for China Mainland Banking Trade in 2025. Recommended state-owned large banks and China Merchants Bank.

Gelonghui Finance ·  Jan 2 13:20  · Ratings

Gelonghui January 2 | CICC released the annual outlook report for China Mainland Banking, predicting stable operations in the mainland banking sector this year, with net interest margin pressure expected to decrease (narrowing by about 10 to 15 basis points for the year). Debt disposal efforts will aid in the repair of the balance sheet (with a steady net non-performing loan generation rate), and revenue and profit growth of CSI China Mainland Banks Index continues to show stability. Looking ahead, monetary policy is expected to be moderately loosened, with a symmetric interest rate cut expected to be 40 to 60 basis points, and a reserve requirement ratio reduction with a room of 100 basis points. The bank believes that a high dividend strategy remains the main logic for trading China Mainland Banking stocks in 2025, focusing on the level and certainty of dividend yields, recommending state-owned big banks (A/H shares) and CM BANK. It also emphasizes targets in regions where economic stability or marginal improvement is expected, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Bank Of Ningbo, and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank. The bank gives "outperforming the industry" ratings to CCB, ABC, and ICBC, setting target prices of HKD 8.91, HKD 5.09, and HKD 7.11 respectively.

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