Deutsche Bank's Global Financial Market Survey for 2025 will take place from December 10 to 13, 2024, with a total of 471 responses received from around the world. Here are 13 key highlights:

1. Only 2% of respondents believe that economic growth in the USA will be below 1% in 2025, while this (below 1%) is the average expectation for Europe's economic growth rate. The average expected growth rate for the USA is 2.5%, with no respondents believing that Europe will reach or exceed this level.

2. The global trade war is seen as the biggest observable risk for 2025, followed by the collapse of Technology stocks and concerns about inflation and Bond yields.

3. Investors believe that Trump takes tariffs seriously, but the average score of 5 indicates they think he will not be as aggressive as his campaign promises. Only 6.4% believe he will be more extreme (score of 8 or above).

4. The vast majority (90%) believe that Germany's "debt brake" will undergo reform. However, only 12% think the reforms will be significant.

5. German respondents are much more confident that some reform will take place, with only 2% believing the "debt brake" will remain in its current form.

6. The number of people believing there is a technology stock bubble in the USA in 2024 is fewer than in 2021, but the total number is still quite high. The Mag-7 of 2024 (seven major technology stocks) $Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS.US)$ The Index's bubble score has not really increased, even though it surged to 72.5% in 2024. The risk of a bubble in Bitcoin is the highest, while European Stocks are the farthest from being in a bubble.

Regarding the Mag-7 for 2025, 33% believe it will decline, 22% believe it will drop by more than 10%, but 67% believe it will rise, with an average overall increase expected to be 6.8%, although lower than the expected 12.9% in 2024.

The expected yield on US Treasury Bonds for 2025 (averaging 4.2%) is slightly lower than the current level, with only 4% believing that the yield on US Treasury Bonds will exceed 5% by the end of 2025.

The forecast for German Bond yields in 2025 is expected to remain stable on average, but 50% anticipate that the yield on 10-year bonds will be below 2% by year-end.

It is expected that in 2025,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$it will rise by 5.2%, with 23% believing it will drop and 23% believing it will rise by more than 10%. The vast majority (35%) believe the increase will be between 5% and 10%, and the momentum will be more concentrated than in previous years.

11. $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ The possibility of the price being halved is considered greater than it doubling, especially for Bitcoin. However, 24% and 28% of people believe they will double.

12. AI will increasingly infiltrate offices, but in the past five months, the widespread use of AI has not increased.

13. The inflation expectations in the USA and Europe are significantly different; in the USA, inflation expectations are set to rise again in 2024, while in Europe, inflation expectations have sharply declined since the summer of 2024, falling below 2% for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Editor/Rocky