2024 年公司海外终端销量逆势增长，上汽智己将于2025 年进入新车周期。上汽乘用车12月销量7.74万辆，同比减少43.4%，环比增长5.2%；1-12月累计销量70.70万辆，同比减少28.3%。公司12 月新能源汽车销量15.41 万辆，同比减少29.8%，环比减少11.9%；1-12 月累计销量123.41 万辆，同比增长9.9%。上汽智己12 月销量8003 辆，同比减少23.1%，环比减少20.0%；1-12 月累计销量6.55 万辆，同比增长71.2%。公司12 月海外及出口销量10.09 万辆，同比减少28.6%，环比增长7.2%；1-12 月累计销量103.84 万辆，同比减少14.1%。公司2024 年海外终端销量108.2 万辆，在欧洲反补贴不利影响下仍然实现终端销量同比增长。12 月15 日，上汽智己宣布完成B1 轮股权融资，整体B 轮融资金额合计94 亿元。根据规划，上汽智己将于2025 年推出4 款全新产品，包括2 款纯电和2 款增程产品。预计智己首款增程车型将于2025 年一季度发布。Core ideas
SAIC Motor's overall wholesale sales increased slightly month-on-month in December, with annual terminal sales higher than wholesale sales of more than 0.6 million units. SAIC Motor's overall sales volume in December was 0.483 million vehicles, down 24.2% year on year, up 0.9% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 4.013 million vehicles, down 20.1% year on year. According to the company's official account, the company's terminal sales volume reached 0.506 million units in December, higher than the wholesale sales volume in December; in 2024, sales volume of the company's terminals reached 4.639 million units, which is more than 0.6 million units higher than the wholesale sales volume in 2024. It is estimated that the pressure on the company's wholesale sales performance this year is mainly due to continued dewarehousing. With the gradual completion of the company's inventory removal, the company achieved a month-on-month increase in wholesale sales for 5 consecutive months in August-December. It is worth looking forward to a steady recovery in wholesale sales in 2025. It is expected that continued improvement in wholesale sales will also drive steady improvement in 2025.
SAIC Audi and the ID family performed well, and SAIC-GM's wholesale and terminal sales continued to improve month-on-month. SAIC Volkswagen sold 0.13 million vehicles in December, down 8.9% year on year and 1.9% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 1.1481 million vehicles, down 5.5% year on year. SAIC-GM sold 0.064 million vehicles in December, down 38.9% year on year and up 13.8% month on month. Sales volume achieved positive month-on-month growth for 5 consecutive months; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 0.435 million vehicles, a decrease of 56.5% year on year. According to SAIC Volkswagen's official account, SAIC Audi 2024's cumulative annual new car deliveries increased 70% year over year, and SAIC Volkswagen ID. Family 2024 sold 0.1302 million vehicles for the year, up 23.8% year on year, becoming the top pure electric sales of joint venture brands. Against the backdrop of high overall pressure on domestic joint venture brands, SAIC Volkswagen luxury brands and new energy brands performed well; according to SAIC-GM's official account, SAIC GM's terminal sales reached 0.0731 million vehicles in December, achieving continuous month-on-month growth for 6 months; SAIC-GM 2024 terminal The sales volume reached 0.673 million vehicles, which is nearly 55% higher than wholesale sales; with the completion of the joint venture brand's inventory removal, the sales volume of the joint venture brand is expected to rise steadily in 2025.
In 2024, the company's overseas terminal sales bucked the trend, and SAIC Zhiji will enter the new car cycle in 2025. SAIC's passenger car sales in December were 0.0774 million units, down 43.4% year on year and up 5.2% month on month; cumulative sales from January to December were 0.707 million units, down 28.3% year on year. The company sold 0.1541 million new energy vehicles in December, down 29.8% year on year and 11.9% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 1.2341 million vehicles, up 9.9% year on year. SAIC Zhiji sold 8003 vehicles in December, down 23.1% year on year and 20.0% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 0.0655 million units, up 71.2% year on year. The company's overseas and export sales volume in December was 0.1009 million vehicles, down 28.6% year on year and up 7.2% month on month; cumulative sales volume from January to December was 1.0384 million vehicles, a decrease of 14.1% year on year. The company sold 1.082 million overseas terminals in 2024, and achieved year-on-year increase in terminal sales despite the adverse effects of European countervailing duties. On December 15, SAIC Motor Zhiji announced the completion of the B1 round of equity financing. The total amount of round B financing was 9.4 billion yuan. According to the plan, SAIC Zhiji will launch 4 new products in 2025, including 2 pure electric models and 2 extended-range products. It is expected that the first Zhiji extended-range model will be released in the first quarter of 2025.
Benefiting from Shanghai's state-owned enterprise reforms, the company is expected to accelerate reforms and promote improvements in management capacity and competitiveness. In the second half of the year, the company actively promoted the implementation of various reform initiatives, promoted the integration of Roewe and Feifan, extended joint venture cooperation with Volkswagen Group and will work together to build a variety of models exclusive to the Chinese market. It is expected that with the support of the municipal government, the company is expected to step up reform efforts, promote the restructuring of the group's organization, business reshaping and rebuilding of advantages, and promote the gradual steady improvement of management capacity and market competitiveness.
Profit prediction and investment advice
EPS is predicted to be 0.89, 1.06, and 1.15 yuan respectively in 2024-2026, which is 21 times the average valuation of the company's 25-year PE, and the target price is 22.26 yuan, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk Alerts
SAIC's passenger car sales fell short of expectations, SAIC Volkswagen and SAIC-GM sales fell short of expectations, industry price wars intensified, and overseas trade protection policies affected export risks.