$Tesla (TSLA.US)$ It is expected to release its fourth quarter and annual delivery and production report on January 2. The market generally anticipates that the fourth quarter delivery data will exceed the company's historical high of 484,507 vehicles from the same period last year.

Analysts estimate that Tesla will deliver about 506,763 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Of these, the delivery of Model 3/Model Y is expected to be 476,398 vehicles, while the delivery of other models is expected to be 30,365 vehicles.

The improvement in demand from major markets, especially China, has contributed to Tesla's strong delivery channels. Tesla has also provided incentives in the USA and international markets, including zero-interest financing policies for the purchase of the new Model 3 and Model Y.

However, to exceed the total delivery volume of over 1.8 million vehicles for the entire year of 2023, Tesla needs to deliver at least about 0.515 million vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the market expectation of 506,763 vehicles suggests that Tesla's global vehicle deliveries in 2024 will reach 1,801,709 vehicles, down from 1,808,581 vehicles in 2023, meaning that the company's latest Earnings Reports provided a 'slight increase' expectation for the year will fall short.

But looking ahead, analysts remain confident in Tesla's delivery growth for 2025, expecting that this electric vehicle giant will exceed 2 million vehicles in deliveries this year, a figure that Musk originally set as a target for 2023. Tesla typically does not provide specific delivery guidance for the coming year in its fourth quarter delivery report, but the Earnings Reports conference call later in January may include some forecasts.

As of Tuesday's closing, Tesla's stock price fell by 3.25%, while the cumulative increase for the whole year of 2024 has exceeded 62%.

The delivery report has little impact.

Although the final delivery numbers may be lower than the previous year, analysts believe this report may have little impact on Tesla's stock price.

UBS Group stated in a report that it expects Tesla's fourth-quarter delivery volume to be about 0.51 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10%.

UBS Group analysts pointed out: "Given the AI-driven stock narrative, we believe the delivery results may not matter as much as they have in the past." They emphasized that, compared to earlier, the impact of delivery data on Tesla's stock performance has weakened.

Tesla's energy storage business is also noteworthy; UBS Group expects energy storage deployments to reach 9.1 GWh this quarter, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 32%. The bank noted that this estimate is very close to the widely expected forecast of 9.6 GWh. However, UBS Group warned that "energy storage deployments are unstable," making the forecast less precise.

After the delivery report, attention will shift to Tesla's earnings report conference call at the end of January.

UBS Group emphasized that investors' attention may focus on Musk's comments, particularly regarding guidance for 2025 and the development of AI, rather than purely financial indicators.

By 2025, Tesla aims to increase its sales by 20% to 30%, reaching between 2.2 million and 2.4 million vehicles, surpassing the UBS Group and the general market prediction of 1.9 million and 2 million vehicles.

The bank stated that new models, including a budget model expected to launch early this year and a new Model Y, might drive the growth of these numbers.

UBS Group noted that trends vary across regions: China is steadily growing driven by promotional activities, Europe is weak due to a slowdown in exports, while shipments in the USA remain flat.

Barclays Analysts expect Tesla's deliveries in the fourth quarter to reach 0.515 million vehicles, thereby driving a year-on-year increase in annual deliveries.

While this potential milestone is noteworthy, Barclays pointed out that Tesla's delivery data may not significantly impact the overall optimistic outlook for the stock. Instead, driven by market excitement for autonomous vehicles and AI, as well as post-election optimism, the bank emphasized that Tesla's fundamentals play a smaller role in its current stock price increase.

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