投资建议：首 次覆盖，给予增持评级。预计公司2024-2026 年收入分别为194.49/212.15/228.93 亿元，增速分别为-3.8%/+9.1%/+7.9%；预计2024-2026 年归母净利润分别为1.71/4.19/4.60 亿元，增速分别为-25.9%/+145.5%/+9.7%。参考可比公司估值，给予梦金园2025 年行业平均的11 倍PE，目标市值49 亿港币。Introduction to this report:
Dream Gold Garden is a high-purity gold jewelry OBM with a full industrial chain layout, and there is still potential for sinking and expanding.
Key investment points:
Investment advice: First coverage, with an increase in holdings rating. The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is 19.449/21.215/22.893 billion yuan, with growth rates of -3.8%/+9.1%/+7.9%, respectively; net profit to mother for 2024-2026 is 0.171/0.419/0.46 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of -25.9%/+145.5%/+9.7%, respectively. Referring to comparable company valuations, Mengjinyuan was given a PE of 11 times the 2025 industry average, with a target market value of HK$4.9 billion.
Gold and jewelry processes have been optimized, and the chain rate has increased. Demand for gold and jewelry has the triple attributes of immediate demand, investment and optional consumption, and the market size continues to grow. The rise of the national trend and the improvement of gold technology promoted the branding of gold and jewelry, and technical optimization also boosted the improvement of the purity level of gold and jewelry.
Currently, China's gold and jewelry market is still centered on channel competition, and leading brands are sinking down to expand stores to increase industry concentration.
Dream Gold Garden is an OBM of high-purity gold and jewelry, with a full industrial chain layout and high self-production ratio. Dream Gold Garden is one of the few original gold and jewelry brand manufacturers that achieve everything from raw material procurement, purification and refining, R&D, product design, and manufacturing to retail through diversified sales online. In 2023, Mengjinyuan ranked first in the high-purity gold and jewelry market share, accounting for 31.3%; in 2023, Mengjinyuan ranked third in the Chinese gold and jewelry processing market, with a market share of 6.9% (according to processing volume). It is the only gold and jewelry company to enter the top five enterprises in gold and jewelry market revenue and gold processing volume at the same time.
The sinking market is expanding, and online e-commerce is growing at a high rate. As of June 30, 2024, the company has formed a complete channel layout covering the whole country, including 2,850 franchise stores operated by 1,670 franchisees, 7 self-operated direct sales area service centers and 17 provincial agents, and 36 self-operated stores and mainstream e-commerce platforms in the consumer network to enter online stores. In the future, Dream Gold Garden is expected to continue to expand the breadth and depth of its offline store network by opening new franchise stores and self-operated stores in existing markets and expanding nationwide.
Risk warning: Fluctuations in gold prices affect company profits, increased industry competition, weak consumer demand, and loss of control of franchisee operations.
