Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.'s (NYSE:HGV) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 40.4x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 10x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Hilton Grand Vacations could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is Hilton Grand Vacations' Growth Trending?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far outperform the market for P/E ratios like Hilton Grand Vacations' to be considered reasonable.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 69% decrease to the company's bottom line. Unfortunately, that's brought it right back to where it started three years ago with EPS growth being virtually non-existent overall during that time. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the eight analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 195% over the next year. With the market only predicted to deliver 15%, the company is positioned for a stronger earnings result.
With this information, we can see why Hilton Grand Vacations is trading at such a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
The Bottom Line On Hilton Grand Vacations' P/E
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
We've established that Hilton Grand Vacations maintains its high P/E on the strength of its forecast growth being higher than the wider market, as expected. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. Unless these conditions change, they will continue to provide strong support to the share price.
Having said that, be aware Hilton Grand Vacations is showing 4 warning signs in our investment analysis, and 1 of those can't be ignored.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Hilton Grand Vacations, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
