短期看点：顺周期弹性标的，关注需求改善及成本下降的“剪刀差”通过拟合公司毛利率YoY 与大豆、小麦原材料价格YoY、以及社零中粮油+餐饮的YoY 变动，我们发现，需求或为影响公司盈利能力弹性的关键，成本仅边际扰动。在下游消费需求旺盛时，即使成本处高位，公司亦可通过产品升级等促进毛利率的高位再升、提价或更通畅。而在下游需求偏弱时，成本下行所贡献的盈利弹性或有限。展望2025 年，我们认为内需有望温和复苏，同时考虑到大豆等成本处低位，公司主业盈利有望修复。Arowana was covered for the first time and a “gain” rating was given. The target price was 37.03 yuan (based on 50XPE in 2025).
Arowana is a leading enterprise in China's grain and oil industry, and is a typical pro-cyclical flexible target. Its current business is expected to benefit from the “scissor gap” brought about by improved downstream demand and falling costs in 2025; incremental businesses such as central cooking and packaged rice can be expected to gain momentum.
Barrier analysis: Full industry chain layout, with dual advantages of industrial products and consumer goods. The company's business covers the entire agricultural product industry chain such as soybeans, rice, wheat, etc. Competitive barriers: 1) Perfect supply chain, the purchasing side relies on international food merchants, and the production side uses capacity agglomeration and circular economy to effectively reduce costs and increase efficiency; 2) There are many products, and the company's edible oil products cover multiple niche markets to create best-selling products around health needs; 3) The company's various kitchen food products can quickly explore the market; 4) The sales network covers the whole country.
Short-term perspective: Procyclical elastic targets, focusing on the “scissor gap” of improving demand and falling costs. By fitting the company's gross margin YoY with changes in raw material prices for soybeans and wheat, and YoY of COFCO Zero, we found that demand may be the key to influencing the company's profitability elasticity, and costs only fluctuate marginally. When downstream consumer demand is strong, even when costs are high, companies can promote higher gross margins, increase prices, or be smoother through product upgrades, etc. However, when downstream demand is weak, the profit flexibility contributed by falling costs may be limited. Looking ahead to 2025, we believe domestic demand is expected to recover moderately. At the same time, considering the low cost of soybeans, etc., the company's main business profit is expected to recover.
Long-term growth: The Central Chef business is beneficial for the long term, and rice and condiments are developing steadily 1) The Central Chef food market has large space and high growth rate. The company is committed to building a Chinese food industrialization platform with food staples as the core. It uses a dual model of self-management and investment promotion to promote the development of the Central Chef business. Leading companies have strong capital and channels, and the industrial park mentality contributes to differentiated competitive advantages. 2) Rice business: It is expected to enjoy the dividends of the industry's packaging and branding development; 3) The condiment business is optimistic about its future collaboration with the Central Chef business.
How we differ from the market view
The market is concerned about the company's revenue growth. We believe: 1) there is still room for structural upgrading in the food and oil sector; 2) China Chef Foods and the like are expected to contribute to growth momentum. The company's core focus is that demand and costs only fluctuate marginally.
Profit forecasting and valuation
We forecast the company's 24-26 net profit of 2.23/4.01/6.68 billion yuan (yoy -22%/+80%/+67%). Referring to 69XPE, the valuation center of the company since its listing, and the comparable company Wind unanimously anticipated 29XPE. Considering the company's strong barriers in the edible oil industry, we gave the company 50 XPE in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 37.03 yuan. The first coverage gives an “gain” rating.
Risk warning: Raw material cost fluctuations exceed expectations, industry competition increases risks, consumption recovery falls short of expectations, food safety risks, etc.