In the past few decades, Wall Street has never predicted that the US stock market would decline in the following year; even the most pessimistic annual forecasts suggested that the stock market would see slight growth. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 Index has recorded declines in 13 years.
With the arrival of the New Year, Wall Street is generally Bullish on the U.S. stock market outlook for next year.
As of December 30, the ROI of the S&P 500 Index reached 24.54% for the year, expected to close for the second consecutive year with over 20% gains, and has cumulatively increased by 66% since the low in October 2022.
Wall Street predicts that this upward trend is likely to continue into next year. 'Opening Bell Daily' compiled the forecasts from 16 Wall Street investment banks, finding that each bank predicts the U.S. stocks will continue to rise next year, expecting the S&P 500 Index to increase by 7% to 19%.
Among the target prices provided by various firms, UBS Group predicts a year-end Target Price of 6,400 points for the S&P in 2025, which is the most pessimistic forecast, while Oppenheimer is the most optimistic, providing a Target Price of 7,100 points.
It is worth noting that in the past few decades, Wall Street has never predicted that the U.S. stock market would decline in the following year, and even the least optimistic annual forecasts suggested a slight growth in the stock market. Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 Index has decreased in 13 years.
However, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group, in the past twenty-four years, the predictors' Target Price has actually deviated by an average of 14%.
Carol Schleif, the chief market strategist at BMO Private Wealth, stated:
"We believe that 2025 will once again see a healthy return in the stock market, but as investors reassess any signs from the Federal Reserve and as we begin to analyze the policies of the new government, especially regarding tariffs and tax policies, the stock market's volatility will also increase."
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