Russia has shifted from rejecting to embracing Cryptos, but experts believe this only proves the effectiveness of Western sanctions and has little effect on Russia's ability to evade them.
The Russian government has traditionally been an opponent of Bitcoin, banning its use for domestic payments, but recently it has begun to see the potential benefits of Cryptos in evading sanctions from the USA and the West.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov discussed last Wednesday on Russian Television whether Bitcoin and other digital Assets could be used to evade USA sanctions on foreign transactions.
He stated that these methods "need to be developed and expanded," and he expects them to be launched "next year."
These comments will provide more material for many in Washington, who believe that Cryptos pose a threat to USA National Security and the ability of law enforcement to prevent money laundering and other illegal activities.
However, experts say that Russia's attempt to adopt Cryptos for cross-border payments further demonstrates the effectiveness of sanctions on the US dollar-based traditional monetary system, and it cannot bypass the USA-dominated international financial system through the widespread use of Bitcoin.
Monetary economist John Paul Koning wrote on X last Wednesday, "A good sign that sanctions on Russian Banks are taking effect is that Russia is being forced to adopt a series of inferior payment methods, such as using Bitcoin, Gold, and less liquid currencies, as well as barter."
Officials from the Biden administration, known for being unfriendly towards the crypto Industry, have repeatedly acknowledged that the widespread use of digital Assets for illegal cross-border payments is not a major issue.
Alessio Evangelista from the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) stated in a speech in 2022 that the US government "admits that it is unrealistic for national actors like Russia to use Cryptos on a large scale to evade sanctions," and added, "There is no switch that can be flipped to use Cryptos to run a G20 economy."
The Trump administration is expected to more strongly support Cryptos, while incoming officials express skepticism about whether Bitcoin or other digital Assets will effectively undermine USA's power.
Silicon Valley entrepreneur David Sacks will serve as the "Crypto Czar" for the Trump administration, and is skeptical about the effectiveness of sanctions.
In March, he stated that the idea that financial sanctions against Russia are "working" is an illusion, adding that the true victims of sanctions are ordinary people, such as those in Europe who are paying higher costs for Energy due to trade embargoes.
In recent months, the Russian leadership, led by Putin, has begun to shift its stance against Cryptos, moving toward legalizing the mining of Cryptos and their use in international payments.
According to Reuters, Putin stated earlier this month that for countries like Russia, which are facing severe financial sanctions from the USA and its allies, Bitcoin serves as an alternative to the US Dollar.
"If Dollars can flow out so easily, why accumulate Dollar reserves?" Putin questioned. "And as for Bitcoin, who can prohibit it? No one," said Putin.
However, experts remain skeptical whether the scale or liquidity of Cryptos is sufficient to pose a real threat to the dominance of the US Dollar.
Although the total market value of Bitcoin has more than doubled in the past year, reaching nearly 1.9 trillion USD, this is negligible compared to the value of government-backed currencies in global circulation.
"Russia's move to incorporate Cryptos into its financial system may enhance its ability to bypass the USA-led financial system and engage in non-dollar-denominated trade," analysts at blockchain intelligence firm Chainalysis wrote in September.
"However, given that Russia's total Forex reserves are slightly below 5 trillion USD, of which about 300 billion USD in dollars, euros, and British Pound remains frozen, the likelihood of large-scale evasion of sanctions remains very low," they added. "The current crypto market simply lacks the liquidity to accommodate such large-scale Trade."