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山煤国际(600546)首次覆盖报告:背倚三晋 未来可期

Shanmei International (600546) First Coverage Report: Backed by Sanjin, the future can be expected

Western Securities ·  Dec 29, 2024 16:00

[Core Conclusion] Based on model analysis, we expect the company's net profit to be 2.791 billion, 3.422 billion, and 3.564 billion in 2024 to 2026, and EPS of 1.41, 1.73, and 1.80 yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of -34.48%, 22.62%, and 4.14%. Consider the DDM valuation method and give the company a target price of 16.47 yuan/share. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.

[Report Highlights] The market believes that the coal industry is a typical cyclical industrial products industry, and that industry sentiment will clearly change cyclically with macroeconomic fluctuations; it also believes that the company is a typical beta variety, and that performance and stock prices completely follow the rise and fall of the coal industry's prosperity. However, we believe that under the tight balance between supply and demand, it is expected that the spot purchase price center will remain at 850-950 yuan/ton in 2024-2026; the company's performance is steady, and there is a high probability that it will continue to maintain high dividends in the future.

[Main logic]

Main logic 1: There is a tight balance between supply and demand, and long-term high and stable coal prices. Therefore, we expect that in 2024-2026, under the premise of full guarantee by the Electricity and Coal Association, the spot purchase price center will still maintain the position of 850-950 yuan/ton, and there is still a possibility that the highest price will reach a new high.

Main logic 2: reduce the scale of outsourcing and focus on the high-quality development of the main business. According to an analysis of the operating model of the coal business sector, by reducing outsourced coal purchases and reducing the low gross profit sector business, the overall gross margin of the coal business sector is expected to be 33.58% in 2024, which is a significant increase from the gross profit margin of 20.37% in 2018.

Main logic 3: Stable performance, long-term dividends can be expected. Since its listing, Shanmei International has accumulated 14 cash dividends, with an average dividend rate of 49.29%. According to the “2024-2026 Shareholder Return Plan”, it is proposed to further clarify the company's cash dividend ratio from 2024 to 2026 on the premise of complying with the “Articles of Association”. The profit distributed in cash for each year during the planning period is not less than 60% of the distributable profit achieved in that year. There is a high probability that dividends will continue to be high in the future.

Risk warning: Economic growth falls short of expectations, production capacity investment exceeds expectations, imports exceed expectations, sudden coal mine accidents, company dividends fall short of expectations, etc.

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