另外，由于全球供应冲击，尤其是氧化铝短缺造成的冲击，铝价一直在上涨。主要中断包括几内亚铝土矿出口暂停、澳大利亚精炼厂停产以及中国对进口原材料的日益依赖。在需求增长之际，这些因素令铝供应链承压，推高了价格。中国近期的刺激措施进一步提振了需求预期，而环境和运营问题限制了产出。因此，该行预计铝价将持续上涨至2025年。GTJA Securities released a Research Report, maintaining a "Buy" rating on CHINAHONGQIAO (01378).
According to Zhitong Finance APP, GTJA Securities published a Research Report, maintaining a "Buy" rating for CHINAHONGQIAO (01378) and raising the EPS forecasts for CHINAHONGQIAO for 2024, 2025, and 2026 by 32.6%, 5.7%, and 9.0%, respectively, to 2.360 yuan, 2.035 yuan, and 2.202 yuan. Based on the EPS multiples of 6.0 times for 2024 and 7.0 times for 2025, the Target Price has been adjusted to 15.20 HKD.
The report noted that the company expects its Net income for 2024 to grow by about 95%, exceeding the previous expectations of the bank. Earlier this month, the company announced a positive earnings forecast for 2024. The anticipated strong earnings growth is mainly due to: the sales prices of the company's Aluminum Alloy products and Alumina products have both risen compared to the same period in 2023, and the sales volume of Alumina products has also increased. Meanwhile, the procurement prices of the company's major raw materials, such as Coal and Anode Carbon Blocks, have decreased compared to the same period in 2023. Benefiting from these positive factors, the gross profit of the aforementioned products has significantly increased compared to 2023.
Additionally, due to Global supply shocks, particularly the impact of Alumina shortages, Aluminum prices have been rising. Key disruptions include the suspension of bauxite exports from Guinea, shutdowns of Australian refineries, and China's increasing reliance on imported raw materials. As demand grows, these factors have pressured the Aluminum supply chain, driving up prices. Recent stimulus measures in China have further boosted demand expectations, while environmental and operational issues have restricted output. Therefore, the bank expects Aluminum prices to continue rising until 2025.
GTJA Securities expects CHINAHONGQIAO's Net income in 2025 to continue benefiting from rising Aluminum prices. CHINAHONGQIAO has the largest primary Aluminum production capacity in the world, producing approximately 6 million tons of primary Aluminum annually. With a high self-sufficiency rate in bauxite, Alumina, and Electrical Utilities, the company has better cost control capabilities than its peers, especially in terms of raw material costs for primary Aluminum production. Therefore, its Net income is highly sensitive to changes in Aluminum prices. The bank expects CHINAHONGQIAO to benefit more from rising Aluminum prices compared to its peers.
