CICC released a research report stating that as of yesterday (30th), the Hk Based Banks and the Hang Seng Index covered by this bank recorded increases of 31% and 18% respectively since the beginning of this year, with Hong Kong banks outperforming the market for the fourth consecutive year. CICC believes that compared to interest rate trends, macroeconomic expectations and the banks' own performance are the main factors influencing stock prices, thus investment in Hk Based Banks should not rely on the stereotypical thinking that 'interest rate hikes are bullish for banks, while rate cuts are bearish'.

The bank stated that as a pro-cyclical Industry, Hk Based Banks often outperform during a rate-cutting cycle driven by improving macroeconomic expectations, with significant differentiation among various banks during this cycle. The regional distribution of international banks is more diverse, and the growth potential of Emerging Markets businesses is better, leading to superior stock performance compared to Hong Kong banks.

Looking forward to next year, CICC believes that the performance of Hk Based Banks can maintain stability, with Shareholder ROI continuing at a relatively high level. Revenue and net profit are expected to decline by 1.1% and 2.3% respectively next year. However, CICC believes that the market still needs some time to price the 'gentle rate cut + soft landing' cycle, and currently maintains the view that international banks are superior to Hong Kong banks, with STANCHART (02888) as the top choice, optimistic about its steady increase in average tangible equity return (RoTE), and giving it an 'outperform Industry' rating with a Target Price of 115.6 HKD.