On December 25, 2024, the Kweichow Moutai 2025 National Dealer Association was held in Guiyang.

Key investment points

The goals at the beginning of the year were successfully completed, and the three transformations promoted the adaptation of supply and demand

In 2024, the company is expected to successfully achieve the goals set at the beginning of the year, and maintain double-digit growth in revenue and profit. In 2025, the company should maintain the strategic strength of “Maotai wine in Maotai, Guizhou, and the industry is more than just a bottle of wine” and the confidence that “it will definitely be able to do a good job in the Maotai liquor market”; the core is to adhere to the consumer-centered approach and continue to carry out the “three transformations”: 1) Customer base transformation, focus on “new business” groups, including traditional industries that are transformed and upgraded, and emerging industries and future industries represented by new energy, biotechnology, etc.; 2) Scenario transformation to create more drinking scenarios that match the characteristics of the industry and the preferences of people Alcohol lifestyle; 3) Service transformation , insist on the shift from “gathering things” to “people in groups”, and transform drinking into a social activity that “pleases oneself”.

Adjust the volume of core products and improve channel delivery efficiency

On the product side, the company will adjust the sales volume of products such as Feitian 53-degree 500ml Maotai Liquor, and Feitian 53-degree 1000ml Maotai Liquor to further strengthen the position of Pumao's single products as the base of the “pyramid” of the olive-type product matrix; at the same time, it will develop cultural and creative products to meet diverse needs. In terms of channels, the company will coordinate and coordinate social channels and self-operated channels, collaborate with the current 10 channels, balance the five quantitative relationships of “time, product, channel, region (domestic), and space (international)”, and launch products into market regions and channels with real needs.

Profit forecast

Currently, the Maotai Group is implementing the “one game of chess, one heart” strategy. The joint stock company continues to lead the sector and continues to launch innovative businesses. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 68.28/73.38/79.71 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 22/21/19 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” investment rating.

Risk Alerts

Downside macroeconomic risks, production capacity expansion falling short of expectations, direct management growth falling short of expectations, reform processes falling short of expectations, etc.