2024 年两轮车行业监管趋严，终端管控门店及国家强制性标准调整背景下，公司经营节奏受到干扰，叠加年初及Q3 渠道去库，H1 公司电动两轮车销量同比-22%；同时为帮助渠道去库，公司降低部分型号出厂均价，综合影响下预计H2 收入延续16%左右下滑。不过考虑到渠道大幅去库，我们预计公司终端下滑幅度远低于出货端，龙头地位并未动摇；且随着以旧换新政策落地加速，我们预计终端已迎回暖。Company events
Yadi Holdings Announces 2024 Performance Forecast: The Group expects net profit of RMB 1.2-1.4 billion for 2024 and RMB 2.64 billion for the same period last year, with a year-on-year decrease of 55% to 47%. Reasons for the decline: 1) Product sales declined due to dealers leaving the warehouse; 2) Due to inventory removal and marketing, prices of some product models were reduced in response to the adjustment of national standards.
H2 revenue continues to decline, and terminals outperform shipments
In 2024, the two-wheeler industry became more strict. In the context of terminal control stores and mandatory national standard adjustments, the company's operating pace was disrupted. H1's electric two-wheeler sales volume was -22% year-on-year; at the same time, in order to help channel removal, the company lowered the average factory price of some models. H2 revenue is expected to continue to decline by about 16% under the combined impact. However, considering the drastic removal of channels, we expect the decline in the company's terminals to be far lower than that of the shipping side, and the leading position has not wavered; moreover, as the implementation of the trade-in policy accelerates, we expect terminals to pick up.
The combination of multiple factors puts significant pressure on profitability in the short term
In order to stabilize channel operations, reduce the average price of some product models, and maintain channel cost investment, the gross margin and sales expense ratio are under some pressure; at the same time, in the context of the new national standard switch, the company maintained investment in model R&D; compounded by the higher non-recurring profit and loss in 2023 (total government subsidies and excessive VAT relief was about 0.49 billion, compared with +0.33 billion in the same period last year); combined with the above, net profit is expected to be 1.2-1.4 billion in 2024, with a net interest rate of 4.1%-4.8% (2023 net profit margin 7.6%); H2 net profit is 0.2-0.4 billion yuan. If revenue is expected to be -16% year over year, the net interest rate is 1.1% -2.5%.
Business restoration determined in 2025, focusing on the bottom investment value
In 2024, due to factors such as the adjustment of the new national standard, strict industry supervision, and channel inventory removal, etc., the company's sales declined sharply, and in order to stabilize the channel, the company appropriately lowered the average shipping price and increased cost investment, putting significant pressure on profits. Looking ahead, with the implementation of trade-in policies, new national standard switching, etc., industry demand is boosted and the trend is concentrated, and the company's operating recovery is immediate and flexibility is considerable; short-term operating fluctuations do not change the company's leading position and strength, improving profitability in the medium term & rapid growth in overseas revenue, which can still guarantee steady business growth, and focus on the company's bottom investment value.
The inflection point of operation can be expected, maintaining the company's “buy” rating
Considering the strong operating pressure in 2024, the company's revenue and performance declined significantly; in the context of a lower base, determined industry sales growth and pattern concentration, we expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be -16%/+36%/+10% year-on-year to 29.2/39.8/44 billion, respectively; net profit due to mother year is 49%/+110%/+20% to 1.3/2.8/3.4 billion; corresponding current valuation is 28/13/ 11X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: 1. Industry competition has greatly exceeded expectations; 2. Industry technology has changed drastically.
