According to the Zhihua Finance APP, on December 31, the National Bureau of Statistics’ Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the Purchasing Manager's Index for China. In response, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics' Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation. In December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index was 50.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index and the Comprehensive PMI Output Index were both at 52.2%, increasing by 2.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month. All three indices are within the expansion Range, indicating that business production and operational activities are accelerating and the economic prosperity level in China continues to show a recovery trend.

The full text is as follows:

In December, the manufacturing purchasing manager index has remained in the expansion range for three consecutive months.

The non-manufacturing business activity index has significantly rebounded.

—— Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, interprets the Purchasing Manager Index for China in December 2024.

On December 31, 2024, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Senior Statistician Zhao Qinghe from the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center provided an interpretation.

In December, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was 50.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month; the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index and the Composite PMI Output Index both stood at 52.2%, increasing by 2.2 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from last month. All three indices are in the expansion range, corporate production and operation activities have accelerated, and the economic prosperity level in China continues to recover and improve.

1. The manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index remains in expansion.

In December, the macro policy combination effect continued to show, with the manufacturing PMI at 50.1%, staying above the critical point for three consecutive months.

(1) Both supply and demand continue to expand. The production index is 52.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month, while the new orders index is 51.0%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with both indices remaining above the critical point, indicating that production and market demand in manufacturing enterprises continue to expand. From the perspective of industries, the production indices and new orders indices for industries such as processed agricultural products, food and beverage refined tea, General Equipment, and electrical machinery all exceed 54.0%, showing rapid growth in related industries; however, the indices for industries such as black metal smelting and rolling processing and Metal Products are both below the critical point, indicating relatively insufficient release of production and demand. To meet production needs, enterprises have increased their procurement efforts, with the procurement volume index standing at 51.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, continuing to expand for two consecutive months.

(2) The PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises is above the critical point. The PMI for large enterprises is 50.5%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, and has remained above the critical point this year, showing significant support to manufacturing; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises is 50.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from last month, marking the first return to the expansion range in eight months; the PMI for small enterprises is 48.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, indicating a slight decline in prosperity.

(3) Some key industries maintain expansion. In key industries, driven by the old-for-new policy in consumer products and the approach of traditional festivals, the pace of expansion in related industries has accelerated, with the consumer goods industry PMI at 51.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from last month; the equipment manufacturing PMI at 50.6%, remaining in the expansion range for five consecutive months and continuing to develop rapidly; the high energy-consuming industry PMI at 48.8%, down 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a downturn in prosperity levels.

(4) Overall price levels have slightly declined. The main raw material purchase price index and the factory price index are 48.2% and 46.7% respectively, down 1.6 and 1.0 percentage points from last month, indicating a general decrease in manufacturing market price levels.

II. The Index of Business Activity in the Non-Manufacturing Sector has significantly rebounded.

In December, the Index of Business Activity in the Non-Manufacturing Sector was 52.2%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a significant improvement in the non-manufacturing sentiment.

1. The service industry shows positive recovery. The Index of Business Activity in the service industry was 52.0%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, reaching its highest point since April, with an accelerated pace of expansion. Among the 21 industries surveyed, 17 had a Business Activity Index higher than last month, with sentiment across industries generally rebounding. Notably, the Business Activity Index for Aviation Transportation, Telecommunications Broadcasting - TV and Satellite Transmission Services, MMF Services, Insurance, and other industries rose above 60.0%, indicating a high level of activity and rapid growth in overall business volume; however, the Business Activity Index in resident services declined compared to last month. Market expectations show that the Business Activity Expectation Index stands at 57.6%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from last month, with service companies becoming increasingly stable in their expectations for market recovery and development.

2. The construction industry returns to expansion. Due to factors such as the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, some enterprises are racing against time to catch up on construction progress; the Index of Business Activity in the construction industry is 53.2%, up 3.5 percentage points from last month. In terms of market demand, the New Order Index stands at 51.4%, marking its first rise into the expansion range this year, with an increase in the volume of newly signed contracts among construction enterprises. The Business Activity Expectation Index is at 57.1%, increasing by 1.5 percentage points from last month, marking three consecutive months of recovery, indicating a strengthened confidence among construction enterprises regarding recent industry developments.

III. Comprehensive PMI Output Index accelerates expansion.

In December, the Comprehensive PMI Output Index was 52.2%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last month, indicating an overall acceleration in the production and operational activities of enterprises in China. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index that compose the Comprehensive PMI Output Index were 52.1% and 52.2% respectively.

This article is selected from the "National Bureau of Statistics official website"; edited by Zhitong Finance: Huang Xiaodong.