Albert Edwards, a bear from Industrial Bank of France, warned that the end of the yield curve inversion and high expectations for the Technology Industry may indicate that the stock market frenzy in the U.S. is about to come to an end.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, in 2024, the US stock market achieved brilliant results, with the benchmark S&P 500 Index rising over 25% year-to-date. Most Analysts expect that the unstoppable bull market will continue in 2025. However, Albert Edwards from Industrial Bank, known for his bearish views on the market and economy, has also issued some warnings.
Edwards, a global strategist at Industrial Bank, stated in a research report last week, "Those skeptics who are weary of the exceptionalism of the USA stock market can gain strength from some signs indicating that the frenzy is about to end, and it is time to exit."
The long-time bear emphasized that the end of the yield curve inversion and the huge expectations for the Technology Industry are the two main reasons for his belief.
Edwards said, "The yield curve of US 10-year and 2-year Treasury bonds has now turned positive, and so has the yield curve of 10-year Treasury bonds and 3-month Treasury bonds. The yield curve inversion could be an early signal of an impending recession, but if the inversion ends, it's like the starting gun has been fired."
The strategist added, "One factor that could 'burst' the stock market bubble is a further rise in US bond yields. The last time the US stock market PE reached such a high level was in 2021, when the 10-year US Treasury yield was 1%. With the 'ice age' inversion in bond/stock correlation now ending, any further rise in yield will pose problems for the stock market."
Regarding the Technology Sector, Edwards stated: "The USA Technology Industry is burdened by a heavy load of optimism, with future profit expectations far exceeding the lagging reality. USA Technology companies now must deliver on this optimistic sentiment."