According to Zhito Finance APP, GF SEC released a research report stating that it maintains a "Buy" rating for TENCENT (00700), keeping the previous report's profit forecast and reasonable value estimation. Revenue is expected to reach 657.9 and 713 billion yuan in 2024 to 2025, with adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders expected to be 221.8 and 244.4 billion yuan, and a reasonable value of 485.21 HKD per share. The bank believes that Wechat is not starting from scratch in e-commerce; rather, based on the merchant foundation of the Mini Program, Wechat Mini Store is an upgrade of the infrastructure and service system, which is expected to enhance Wechat's e-commerce field.

GF Securities' main points are as follows:

Wechat Mini Store promotes supply and demand through social attributes, and the Wechat field provides conversion and repurchase, likely forming a uniquely light social e-commerce model.

Wechat Mini Program has accumulated a solid merchant foundation and trading ecosystem. In the past, merchants and users mainly completed e-commerce transactions within the Mini Program; in 2022, Wechat launched the Video Number Mini Store to explore e-commerce in the Short Video field; in 2024, Wechat Mini Store was established as the core of Wechat's e-commerce scenario, promoting trade through Wechat's holistic traffic, continuously enhancing infrastructure and product capabilities. The bank believes that Wechat does not base its operations on the successful paths of other platforms, continuously seeking an operating model suitable for its own social field in the past. According to TENCENT's Earnings Reports, GMV of the Mini Program has reached 2 trillion yuan (24Q3), which includes the scale of e-commerce transactions. While converting the stock of Mini Program merchants, Wechat Mini Store attracts more merchants to settle in through social gameplay, generating incremental growth.

More traffic resources are made available to Wechat Mini Store. Combined with gifting, it is expected to accelerate the penetration of merchants and users.

Merchants operating Wechat Mini Store will be prioritized in search results (including product card exposure). Changes in search ranking, as well as the continuously improved and enriched functions of Wechat Mini Store, such as the private domain sales system linked to accounts, may attract merchants to try opening stores. Unique functions of the Mini Store, like gifting, when combined with Spring Festival operations, can drive gifting trends, fostering unique demand scenarios and product supply.

Risk warning: Increasing regulatory scrutiny, stricter approval of game licenses, and risks from competition with short videos.