智通财经APP获悉，在近期一个因假期而缩短的交易周内，房地产精选行业SPDR基金ETF(XLRE.US)轻微下滑0.61%，其中两个交易日录得亏损，尽管节日气氛为市场带来短暂的提振。与此同时，富时Nareit全股票Real Estate Investment Trust指数微降0.27%，而道琼斯房地产投资信托指数则以0.27%的涨幅微幅收红。

尽管全年来看，房地产精选行业SPDR基金ETF的涨幅仅为1.43%，远低于标普500指数的25.83%的增长，但富时Nareit和道琼斯REIT指数仍保持了正增长态势。尽管2024年房地产板块表现未及大盘，但市场对2025年的展望却流露出乐观情绪。

2024 Review: Challenges and Opportunities Coexist.

Looking back at 2024, Real Estate Stocks struggled under the ongoing pressure of the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate hikes. Despite the implementation of interest rate cuts during the year, the recovery path for the Real Estate market remains bumpy. In the first half of the year, the market's fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts led to a significant market correction.

However, as hopes for interest rate cuts reignited in the second half of the year, the market gradually regained confidence, with most of the gains in the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF recorded during this period. Nevertheless, the upcoming USA presidential election has not brought significant positive effects to the Real Estate Industry, and this Sector has hardly become a focal point of market attention.

Notably, despite facing numerous challenges, the inflow into the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF reached $1.13 billion as of December 26, indicating that investors remain Bullish on the long-term outlook for the Real Estate market.

2025 Outlook: Signs of Recovery Begin to Emerge.

Looking ahead to 2025, a report released by Citigroup highlights the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) which indicate that, driven by a favorable market environment, REITs are expected to achieve an ROI of 10% to 15%, a projection that is significantly higher than the expected ROI of 8% for the S&P 500 Index. However, the report also cautions investors that there may be significant differences in ROI among different REITs.

Analyst Brad Thomas from Seeking Alpha gives a "Shareholding" rating to multiple sectors of REITs, including net leasing, shopping centers, Medical Care, and Datacenter, while rating mobile signal towers, industrial, Sunbelt office buildings, and apartments as "Outperforming the Market."

Meanwhile, David Auerbach, Chief Investment Officer at Hoya Capital Real Estate, points out that the Real Estate cycle is expected to shift from the "recession" phase to the "recovery" phase by 2025, providing a more favorable market environment for REITs.

"Over the past two years, expenditures on commercial and residential construction have significantly declined, leading to a slowdown in supply growth. Auerbach points out that this is favorable for REITs, as demand is outpacing supply. As the macroeconomic environment adjusts, publicly traded REITs with flexible capital and lower leverage will gain an advantage, allowing them to outperform private equity funds and non-traded REITs that rely on low-cost debt in competition."

However, considering market momentum and potential risks, XLRE received a strong sell rating in SA's Algo rating system.

Industry Highlights and Low Points

In this year's real estate market, Medical Care REITs have stood out, with an ROI of about 22%. Among them, Iron Mountain (IRM.US), a document storage service and Datacenter provider, continues to rise driven by the boom in AI stocks, becoming one of the best-performing REITs. Meanwhile, the commercial Real Estate Services and investment company CBRE Group has also performed excellently, rising about 40% year to date.

Real Estate management and development, as a branch of the Real Estate market, has historically been highly sensitive to interest rate changes. With the market heating up on expectations of a rate cut in September, stocks in the industry have significantly risen since mid-July.

Analyst David Johnson from Seeking Alpha commented on CBRE Group: "As a benchmark in the commercial Real Estate Services sector, CBRE's revenue and profits exceeded expectations. In my view, the company's capabilities and its operating model constitute a strong competitive advantage that is sufficient to withstand other competitors' erosion of market share."

Johnson further pointed out: "The recent interest rate cuts are a significant bullish factor for the Real Estate industry, as they reduce capital costs. At the same time, the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act has opened new channels for federally funded projects in the future. Unless unforeseen events such as war occur, I expect CBRE's performance to exceed that of other industries."

However, not all REITs have had a fruitful year. Life science Real Estate Investment Trusts Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) and mobile signal tower Real Estate Investment Trusts Crown Castle (CCI) became the largest decliners among S&P 500 Real Estate stocks.

JPMorgan downgraded ARE's rating and FFO forecast, noting weak leasing demand in the life sciences sector. CCI faces multiple challenges, including cost-cutting, asset optimization, and high capital expenditures. Additionally, Prologis (PLD.US), one of the most heavily weighted REITs in the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund ETF, also dragged down the industrial REITs subsector in 2024. Several Wall Street analysts have taken a cautious stance on Prologis, downgrading their ratings.

In terms of Hotels and Resorts REITs, the sector performed poorly due to the decline in adjusted EBITDA growth. Host Hotels & Resorts (HST.US) has seen its value shrink by about 7% this year. However, investment company Compass Point expects that the indicators will improve in 2025.

In summary, despite the various challenges facing the Real Estate market in 2024, looking ahead to 2025, as the market environment improves and expectations for interest rate cuts increase, REITs are expected to achieve higher ROI. However, while pursuing yields, investors should remain vigilant and pay attention to the differences between different REITs and potential market risks. Every step of the Real Estate market's recovery journey will be filled with challenges and opportunities.