The Zhiyuan Finance APP learned that GTJA released a Research Report stating that the Spring Festival peak season is approaching, and it is expected that the consumption data in January will significantly improve due to low base effects and the timing of the Spring Festival. The resonance of new channels and new categories is accelerating new consumer innovations. The "gift" function of online WeChat small stores may accelerate the expansion of gifting scenarios and the monetization of social traffic. The trend of offline retail channel adjustment is in its early stages, and emotional and experiential consumption is rising. The expansion of new categories driven by new scenes and new channels is expected to benefit snack categories that have strong gifting attributes and are sensitive to channel changes. Under growth momentum, performance growth rates and expected space lead, and it is likely to continue showing significant valuation elasticity.

GTJA's main opinions include:

The operation of Baijiu (Chinese Liquor) enters a peak season with differentiation, and Kweichow Moutai holds a dealers' association meeting.

Currently, some liquor enterprises have started the opening red payment collection. From the progress, the overall rhythm is slower than the same period of the 2024 opening red, mainly affected by channel inventory and slow sales. In terms of pricing, the recent batch prices of Feitian and Pu Wujia remain relatively stable, expected mainly due to the cautious shipment by liquor companies in 2024 Q4. The bullish policy expectations drive the valuation repair of Baijiu, and the market progressively elevates the importance of industry trends and individual stock operational performance. As the peak season approaches, the Baijiu Sector enters a performance observation window, it is expected that small and medium-sized enterprises will still be in a deep adjustment stage in 2025 Q1, while leading enterprises' market shares continue to rise.

The leadership change of Tsingtao Brewery has been completed, focusing on high-quality leaders with improved expectations and stabilizing performance first.

On December 25, Tsingtao Brewery announced the election of Mr. Jiang Zongxiang as the company's chairman and concurrently as president. The completion of the leadership change and organizational renewal is expected to bring positive marginal changes to the company, and an improvement in prosperity in 2025 is anticipated. The beer sector is expected to benefit from the valuation repair due to strong profit resilience, marginal improvements in volume and price, and expectations of increased dividends driven by leading companies' events. With the Spring Festival consumption peak approaching, new rounds of dining retail consumption vouchers have begun being issued in provinces and cities including Hubei. Considering that the public dining scene has been in a low base state since Q4, marginal improvements in the prosperity of beer and dining supply related to dining scenes in 2025 can be expected. The stability has gradually started to show in leading product categories such as condiments and dairy products, while beverages maintain resilience.

Investment recommendation: Prioritize growth and focus on high-quality leaders expected to stabilize and improve.

1) Recommendation to increase shareholding in Baijiu: Stable symbols Wuliangye Yibin (000858.SZ), Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory (600809.SH), Kweichow Moutai (600519.SH), Luzhou Laojiao (000568.SZ), Anhui Yingjia Distillery (603198.SH), Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock (603369.SH), Anhui Gujing Distillery (000596.SZ); high elasticity symbols expected to rebound: Sichuan Swellfun (600779.SH), Shede Spirits (600702.SH), Jiugui Liquor (000799.SZ);

2) Recommendation to increase shareholding in Snack Food: High growth symbols Three Squirrels Inc. (300783.SZ), Yanker Shop Food (002847.SZ), YouYou Foods (603697.SH), Jinzai Food Group (003000.SZ) and Hong Kong stock Wei Long (09985), demand improvement symbol Chacha Food (002557.SZ);

3) Recommendation to increase shareholding in Condiment: Baoli Food (603170.SH), Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food (603288.SH), Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding (600872.SH), Qianhe Condiment And Food (603027.SH);

4) Recommendation to increase shareholding in Beer and Beverage: Tsingtao Brewery (600600.SH), Beijing Yanjing Brewery (000729.SZ), Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery (002461.SZ), Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group (002568.SZ), Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH), Hong Kong stock CHINA RES BEER (00291);

5) Recommendation to increase shareholding in Dairy Product: Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887.SH), New Hope Dairy (002946.SZ), benefiting symbol: MENGNIU DAIRY (02319).