According to a report by Caixin Network on December 30 (Reporter Liang Xiangcai), driven by factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, international geopolitical conflicts, and global central banks' purchases of gold, this year's gold prices have particularly stood out by repeatedly hitting new highs.

While gold prices are rising, major gold companies listed in A-shares have impressive earnings, among them, SD GOLD (600547.SH), Zijin Mining Group (601899.SH), Shanjin International (000975.SZ), and * ST Zhongrun (000506.SZ) are busy increasing their reserves.

Regarding future trends in gold prices, several industry insiders interviewed by Caixin Network believe that the factors driving the rise in gold prices still exist, particularly during the current unstable transition period of the new and old global order, the reform of the global currency system, and the declining backing of credit behind paper currency; the trend of a "long bull" market for gold prices still exists; however, the risk of short-term fluctuations cannot be ignored.

Gold prices have repeatedly reached historic highs, and gold companies are busy increasing their reserves.

Since the beginning of this year, domestic and international gold prices have resonated and risen, repeatedly reaching historic highs, with a nearly 30% increase this year.

Regarding the reasons for the rise in gold prices in 2024, Huaan Securities' chief analyst for New Metal Materials, Xu Yongqi, stated in an interview with Caixin Network that it is mainly influenced by the gradual realization of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, international geopolitical conflicts, persistently high inflation represented by Europe and the USA, and continuous purchases of gold by global central banks.

"(The rise in gold prices) The long logic is the long-term depreciation of credit currencies, which means the depreciation of the dollar's value relative to commodities; this logic is very long-term, and changes are not significant when viewed annually," said the research team of China Europe Ruibo to a reporter from Caixin Network.

From the perspective of the terminal consumer market, Zhu Zhigang, Vice President of the Guangdong Gold Association and Chief Gold Analyst, stated to the Financial Alliance reporter that some Institutions are worried about missing out and are panic-buying Gold, which is also pushing up the gold price. Overall, as the gold price continues to rise, the consumption demand for jewelry is declining, while the demand for investment gold bars is continuously increasing.

Against the backdrop of high gold prices, as of the first three quarters of this year, the performance of major listed gold enterprises has reported good news; except for the company that has already been ‘special treated’, *ST Zhongrun, which is still losing money, the remaining seven major gold enterprises in A-shares have all reported a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of over 25%. Among them, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988.SH) and Western Region Gold (601069.SH) have at least doubled their net profit year-on-year.

While gold prices are rising, gold enterprises are busy increasing reserves.

In February, Shandong Gold International announced that it plans to acquire the Canadian mining company Osino, which primarily owns the Namibia Twin Hills Gold Mine, for approximately 0.368 billion Canadian dollars (about 1.96 billion RMB).

In March, SD GOLD announced that it plans to acquire a 70% stake in Changtai Mining for approximately 0.471 billion yuan, with the core assets of the mine being the mining rights and exploration rights of the Taolei Gold Mine.

In June, Zijin Mining Group announced it would issue 2 billion US dollars in Convertible Bonds and place 3.9 billion Hong Kong dollars in new H stocks, raising about 18 billion RMB to support its overseas expansion and optimize its financial structure. On October 9, Zijin Mining Group announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Jinyuan International, intends to invest 1 billion US dollars to acquire 100% equity of Newmont Golden Ridge Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the symbol company), which is held by Newmont Corporation. The symbol company holds 100% equity of the Akyem Gold Mine located in Ghana, which is one of Ghana's largest gold mines.

In October, Zhaojin Ruining officially took over *ST Zhongrun through a share transfer agreement, with a total transaction amount of about 0.256 billion yuan, and the latter has achieved a series of 21 trading limits.

Market participants remain optimistic about long-term gold prices.

Xu Yongqi holds an overall bullish view on future Gold prices. He stated that, in the long term, the overall government credit of countries around the world is gradually being overdrawn, leading to a decline in the credit backing of the paper currency; in the medium term, Gold prices will still be strongly supported by the purchasing strength of central banks, particularly represented by China; in the short term, against the backdrop of high inflation in the USA likely remaining elevated next year, the pace and intensity of interest rate cuts may fall short of expectations, which could put pressure on Gold prices.

"The ten-year strategy is bullish on Gold, this year's increase is just the beginning." Zhang Yu, deputy director and chief macro analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute, recently stated in a live broadcast on the Financial Alliance, that the era of capital prioritization, cooperation prioritization, and global trade liberalism that the world has revered for the past four to five decades has gradually come to an end after the global pandemic in 2020.

Zhang Yu stated that the biggest logic lies in the gradual weakening of the old order led by the USA, while the new order may have difficulty rising peacefully, during this period of instability and friction, Gold may experience its best historical performance. At the same time, looking at the recent years where global central banks and retirement funds have increased their Gold holdings, the long-term bullish trend of Gold prices is already very clear, but the short-term movements of Gold prices remain difficult to predict due to various factors.

The aforementioned bullish viewpoint on Gold prices was recognized by a fund manager for gold stocks in Hong Kong. Recently, he told a reporter from Financial Alliance, "This Gold price increase is different from previous ones; using past logic to assess it is relatively limited and often backfires; placed within the framework of the transformation of the world monetary system, the Gold bull market has only just begun."

Regarding future Gold prices, the research team at China Europe Ruibo believes that Gold prices will generally be in a slow upward trend, but the pace of increase should be much slower compared to this year and last year.

The reason is that, on one hand, although central banks continue to net purchase Gold, the intensity has clearly decreased, meaning the medium-term inflow of capital to go long has weakened considerably compared to the past two years. Furthermore, during the Trump 2.0 era, the possibility of another rise in USA inflation cannot be ruled out, which may lead to a slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. After the interest rate cuts, the ultimate real interest rates in the USA may be higher than previously expected, which will also suppress the willingness of institutions to increase their Gold ETF holdings and the scale of inflow.

On December 12, the World Gold Council stated in its "2025 Global Annual Outlook" that as of November 2024, Gold prices had risen by 28% this year; in 2025, Gold will have a positive but more moderate trend, with interest rates, risks, and economic growth being key factors.

Zhu Zhigang has issued a warning about the risks of short-term fluctuations in Gold prices. He stated that although in the long term, there remains upward momentum in Gold prices, the short-term fluctuation risks are also quite significant. For investors at this stage, it's important to avoid chasing the market; every decline is an opportunity to Buy. A strategy of gradually entering the market in small amounts and liquidating at high points should be adopted.