公司创新收入高速增长，转型成果显著，管线价值全球化考量。公司24H1 经营性收入51.03 亿元，实现+13.83%，目前公司管理经营费用趋于稳定，经营性利润实现同比高增长，创新驱动成效显著。24H1 创新药与合作产品销售收入50.32 亿元，同比增长80.6%，其占收入比重已达到77.4%。若扣除13 亿元首付款，24H1 创新药纯销售收入约37.2 亿元，同比增长约33.6%，占经营性收入超70%。近年来，阿美替尼新适应症、B7-H3 ADC、GLP-1/GIP 受体双重激动剂、TYK2 抑制剂、P2X3拮抗剂、OX2R 拮抗剂等前沿管线均有积极进展，公司管线价值已过渡到全球化考量体系。Incident: On December 18, 2024, Hanson Pharmaceuticals granted MSD an exclusive global license to develop an oral small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist. Under the agreement, Hanson Pharmaceuticals will receive a down payment of $0.112 billion and be eligible for milestone payments of up to $1.9 billion based on progress in the development, registration approval and commercialization of the drug candidate, while also receiving royalties based on product sales. Under certain conditions, Hanssen Pharmaceuticals may jointly promote or exclusively commercialize the HS-10535 in China.
MSD has a recognized leadership position in the field of cardiometabolic diseases. The company said in a press release that through this agreement, MSD will evaluate the potential of HS-10535 based on research experience in the biology of enterostimulating insulin, including its potential to provide additional cardiometabolic benefits in addition to weight loss.
The oral small molecule GLP-1 circuit has completed several major license-out deals. In May 2024, Hengrui Pharmaceutical granted a portfolio of 3 GLP-1 products to Hercules in the United States through NewCo's innovative overseas approach. The total transaction price was as high as 6 billion US dollars, and it also obtained 19.9% of Hercules's shares. In November 2023, Chengyi Biotech's small molecule GLP-1 receptor agonist was authorized to AstraZeneca. Chengyi Biotech received a down payment of $0.185 billion and is expected to receive a milestone payment of up to $1.825 billion.
The company's innovation revenue is growing rapidly, transformation results are remarkable, and pipeline value is considered global. The company's 24H1 operating revenue was 5.103 billion yuan, achieving +13.83%. Currently, the company's management and operating expenses are stabilizing, operating profit has achieved high year-on-year growth, and innovation-driven results are remarkable. The sales revenue of 24H1's innovative drugs and cooperative products was 5.032 billion yuan, up 80.6% year on year, and its share of revenue reached 77.4%. After deducting 1.3 billion of payments from the head of state, 24H1 Innovative Drug's net sales revenue was about 3.72 billion yuan, an increase of about 33.6% over the previous year, accounting for more than 70% of operating revenue. In recent years, cutting-edge pipelines such as new indications of ametinib, B7-H3 ADC, GLP-1/GIP receptor dual agonists, TYK2 inhibitors, P2X3 antagonists, and OX2R antagonists have all made positive progress, and the company's pipeline value has transitioned to a global consideration system.
Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's total revenue for 2024-2026 to be 11.907, 13.328, and 14.836 billion yuan, respectively. The company's down payment of $0.112 billion for this authorized transaction is expected to be confirmed in 2025, so the net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to be 4.01, 4.18, and 4.317 billion yuan, respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 25/24/23 times, respectively. Given the company's rich innovation pipeline and the smooth progress of globalization, the company's “buy” rating was maintained.
Risk warning. Risk of clinical development failure, risk of deteriorating competitive landscape, risk of sales falling short of expectations, etc.