Benefiting from the rapid expansion of the Global AI Datacenter, the demand in the gas turbine Industry has increased. Since 2023, major domestic and international gas turbine manufacturers of complete units or components have seen a rapid growth in Orders/income.
According to Zhito Finance APP, Sinolink released Research Reports stating that benefiting from the rapid expansion of Global AI Datacenters, the demand for the Gas Turbine Industry has increased. Since 2023, the Orders/Revenue of major domestic and international gas turbine manufacturers for whole units or components have seen rapid growth. Additionally, the Global gas turbine market is mainly monopolized by overseas leaders such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens, and GE, while Chinese gas turbine companies have significant room for increasing market share. Over the past decade, China's gas-fired power generation ratio has steadily increased, and as the localization of gas turbines in China continues, top companies in the gas turbine Industry Chain are expected to benefit fully. It is recommended to invest in the leading domestic gas turbine Blade company Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical (603308.SH).
Sinolink Securities' main points are as follows:
The expansion of Global AI Datacenters has driven an increase in gas turbine power generation demand, resulting in high growth of overseas leading gas turbine Orders.
Benefiting from the expansion of AI Datacenters, the Global gas turbine demand is accelerating. Gas turbines are primarily used in power generation, industrial drives, and marine propulsion, and have a high technical barrier. According to Gartner, the number of large Datacenters being newly built globally to support generative AI has rapidly increased, leading to a significant rise in electrical demand. Between 2023 and 2027, the electricity consumption of Global AI Servers is expected to increase from 195 Terawatt-hours to 500 Terawatt-hours. The high commercial value of Datacenters requires them to have long-term, stable, and ample backup power, and gas turbines are expected to become an important choice for peaking power generation in the future due to their advantages in startup speed, power generation efficiency, and peak shaving capability, remaining Bullish on long-term demand for gas turbines.
According to Gas Turbine World and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, global gas turbine sales grew from 39.98 GW to 44.10 GW from 2019 to 2023, with a CAGR of 2.49%. It is estimated that from 2024 to 2026, the average annual sales of global gas turbines will be 60 GW, an increase of 36% compared to 2023, indicating accelerated growth. Overseas leaders in the gas turbine Industry Chain have seen significant increases in Revenue/Orders. Currently, the global gas turbine market is primarily monopolized by companies like Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Siemens Energy, and GE. According to Straits Research, these three companies together accounted for 76.3% of the global market share in 2023.
Currently, overseas leading companies in gas turbines have seen significant increases in Orders/Revenue: 1) In fiscal year 2024, Siemens Energy’s gas services newly signed Orders amounted to 16.365 billion euros, an increase of 26.89% year-on-year, indicating accelerated growth. New Assets in the gas service sector for fiscal year 2024 reached 0.241 billion euros, an increase of 48.77% year-on-year. 2) Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Energy Systems business Revenue for the first half of 2024 grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating acceleration, and plans to increase gas turbine capacity by 30% by the 2026 fiscal year. 3) Between Q1 and Q3 of 2024, GE Vernova signed 78 new gas turbine Orders, a year-on-year increase of 32.2%, including 44 heavy-duty Orders, up 37.5% year-on-year, showcasing high Order growth. 4) For Q1 to Q3 of 2024, overseas parts leader Howmet reported quarterly Revenue in the engine sector of 0.89/0.93/0.95 billion USD, showing a continuous increase.
The proportion of power generation from CHINA GAS HOLD is steadily increasing, and the localization of gas turbines is continuously advancing.
The proportion of power generation from CHINA GAS HOLD is steadily increasing, with significant room for improvement compared to overseas. From 2013 to 2023, China's gas-fired power generation has grown steadily, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.9%. The share of natural gas generation rose from 2.1% to about 3.2%, but it is still far below the global average level (23%) and significantly lower than the USA (43%). There remains considerable room for improvement in the proportion of gas-fired power generation in the future.
The localization of gas turbines is continuously advancing, and significant breakthroughs have been made in our country's heavy-duty combustion technology. After years of development, we have achieved localization of light gas turbines, and some products can be exported, but we still partially rely on imports for heavy-duty gas turbines. Since 2022, we have also made new breakthroughs in the field of heavy-duty gas turbines, such as the official shipment of the domestically produced F-class 50 megawatt heavy-duty gas turbine, marking a breakthrough from 0 to 1 in our自主重型燃机领域.
Domestic Industry Chain leaders are enhancing technology, and revenue in the gas turbine field continues to grow rapidly. 1) Dongfang Electric Corporation: In 2022, the delivery of the domestically produced F-class 50 megawatt heavy-duty gas turbine was completed, further promoting the localization of heavy-duty gas turbines. In the first half of 2024, revenue from combustion turbines reached 3.6 billion yuan, up 154% year-on-year, showing accelerated growth. 2) HARBIN ELECTRIC: In 2023, revenue from gas turbine equipment was 1.144 billion yuan, up 86.35% year-on-year, maintaining high growth. 3) Hangzhou Steam Turnine Power Group: In 2023, revenue from gas turbines reached 1.03 billion yuan, up 108% year-on-year, with the revenue share increasing from 8.9% in 2022 to 17.3%. 4) Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical: As of the first half of 2024, thermal end products have been developed for various models of E/F/H/J-class combustion turbines, with clients covering major global gas turbine giants like Siemens and Baker Hughes. By the end of the third quarter of 2024, contract liabilities increased to 0.171 billion yuan, up over 200% compared to the end of the second quarter of 2024. 5) Wedge Industrial: In 2023, revenue from high-temperature materials was 0.25 billion yuan, up 52% year-on-year, showing high growth.
Risk warning:
The global expansion of Datacenters is not meeting expectations, the capacity expansion progress of domestic major manufacturers is not meeting expectations, and there are risks from exchange rate fluctuations.
