公司储能市占率快速提升，大铁锂竞争优势显著。公司储能份额全球第二，24 年我们预计出货50GWh+，25 年我们预计仍可保持40%+增长，出货70-80GWh，其中大铁锂开始出货，我们预计贡献7GWh左右，占比接近10%，并持续开拓海外市场，预计26 年海外市场大规模放量。单位盈利端，由于优质订单比例提升，叠加产能利用率提升，我们预计公司24 年Q3 储能单位盈利0.03-0.04 元/wh，25 年公司大铁锂单位净利预计更高，且海外订单逐步起量，我们预计25 年整体单位净利可进一步提升，贡献25-30 亿利润。Key investment points
Incident: On December 25, the company announced the signing of a cooperation agreement with an American group customer. The company and Everweft Malaysia will provide the customer with batteries.
Overseas energy storage capacity is scarce, and the profit flexibility of the company's overseas production capacity is remarkable. The company's Malaysian plant is expected to be put into operation by the end of '25, and will start contributing to production in Q1 '26. Overseas battery factories' lithium iron production capacity is progressing slowly. The US energy storage system still relies on domestic iron-lithium batteries. Overseas energy storage capacity from domestic manufacturers is scarce, and Everweft's overseas production capacity is progressing faster. Previously, we have received Powin's 10GWh order. The Malaysian factory is currently in short supply. If we calculate that the Malaysian factory shipped around 10GWh in 26 years, we expect the share of Everweft Lithium Energy's energy storage market in North America to increase to about 5-10%. The Malaysian factory mainly supplies overseas markets. We expect the unit profit to be 0.03 yuan/wh higher than the current energy storage profit. According to the estimate of 0.05-0.07 yuan/wh, it is estimated to contribute 0.5-0.7 billion in profit in 26 years.
The company's energy storage market share has increased rapidly, and lithium iron has a significant competitive advantage. The company's share of energy storage is second in the world. We expect to ship 50GWh+ in '24, and we expect to maintain 40% + growth and ship 70-80GWh in '25. Of these, lithium iron will begin to be shipped. We expect to contribute about 7 GWh, accounting for close to 10%, and continue to explore overseas markets. We expect large-scale sales in overseas markets in '26. On the unit profit side, due to the increase in the ratio of high-quality orders and the increase in the utilization rate of production capacity, we expect the company's Q3 energy storage unit profit to be 0.03-0.04 yuan/wh. The company's net profit per unit for lithium iron is expected to be higher in '25, and overseas orders are gradually increasing. We expect the overall net profit per unit to increase further in '25, contributing 2.5-3 billion in profit.
The company started shipping large cylinders after 25 years of boosting sales. The company's power entered the Xiaopeng P7+ supply chain, and the power capacity utilization rate gradually increased in Q4 in '24, and was targeted by car companies such as Zero Sports. We expect the capacity utilization rate to increase dramatically in Q2. We expect power to be shipped by 30 GWh+ in '25, an increase of 15%. Among them, large cylinders will begin to be released, and shipments are expected to be around 5 GWh, and the big cylinder is expected to double in '26. On the profit side, the company's 24Q3 driving gross profit margin is around 10%. Due to low capacity utilization and overall break-even, we expect the dynamic profit to gradually improve from 25Q2.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We maintain the estimated net profit of 4.13/5.5/7.51 billion yuan for 24-26, an increase of 2%/33%/36%, corresponding to PE 24/18/13 times. Considering the rapid growth of the company's energy storage, we gave 26 times PE for 25 years, with a target price of 70 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Raw material prices fluctuated beyond market expectations, and electric vehicle sales fell short of market expectations.