KeyBanc Analyst raises the target stock price for Netflix.
According to Zhitong Finance, KeyBanc Analyst Justin Patterson has raised Netflix's target stock price from $785 to $1000, maintaining a "Shareholding" rating. The firm cited several reasons why Netflix's performance could outpace the S&P 500 Index before 2025, including reduced competitive intensity, increased live events, revenue and EPS growth surpassing peers, and a higher valuation floor.
It is worth noting that Netflix is now not only producing films and Television programs. It has changed its earlier strategy of "not being interested in live Sports broadcasting," striving not to miss out on this big opportunity. In January 2024, Netflix announced a massive 10-year deal worth $5 billion with WWE, set to begin airing the wrestling promotion's flagship brand Raw in 2025, marking the company's first long-term commitment to live Sports programming.
In May of this year, the company announced a three-year agreement with the NFL to broadcast two Christmas Day games, marking the company's first broadcast of American mainstream team Sports events. Netflix will pay the NFL $0.15 billion. However, this large amount could be a good deal for Netflix—as estimated, it could earn $0.1 billion from advertisements alone per game.
KeyBanc also believes that Netflix could increase prices due to strong content like the NFL and Squid Games 2 creating profit opportunities. The possibility of collaborating with the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) also increases its appeal.
Although UFC has previously expressed the desire to stay with ESPN, KeyBanc analysts believe that Netflix's success with the Tyson vs. Paul fight, along with WWE's (one of TKO, the UFC owner's business divisions) initial viewership ratings, could make Netflix a strong contender.
Meanwhile, there is still room for future price increases. The last significant price hike for Netflix was in January 2022. The institution stated, "Based on U.S. price points, Netflix's cost per hour is still about half that of cable television, much lower than movie tickets. With more live events coming up, we believe the potential for price increases is rising."
Netflix has outperformed its competitors this year. Netflix has shown strong performance this year. The company's earnings and revenue for the third quarter exceeded Wall Street's expectations. In the latest released third quarter earnings report, Netflix reported an EPS of $5.40, surpassing the analyst forecast of $5.12. Revenue grew by 15% to $9.83 billion, exceeding the company's guidance and market expectations. Netflix expects revenue to grow by 15% in the fourth quarter and for the entire year of 2024.
By 2025, Netflix expects revenue to range from $43 billion to $44 billion, reflecting an increase of 11% to 13% compared to the expectation of $38.9 billion in 2024. This is primarily due to the increase in paid subscribers and the average revenue per subscriber. According to StreetAccount data, in October this year, Netflix reported an increase of 5 million users in the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of 4.5 million. As of the third quarter, Netflix has a total of 0.2827 billion subscribers.
Year to date, Netflix's stock price has risen by 90%. In contrast, its competitor Disney (DIS.US) has seen only a 25% increase in stock price during the same period, while Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US) has decreased by 7%.