彭博美国经济意外指数（Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index）徘徊在略高于零的水平，该指数追踪经济数据发布与市场预期的关系。这表明近几个月来市场对经济数据几乎没有惊喜，但乐观情绪仍在推动市场走高。① Wells Fargo & Co warns that the optimistic rebound in the US stock market after the election may lead to a short-term 'hangover', with the S&P 500 Index possibly dropping by 7%. ② The report notes that the disconnection between the US stock market and the economy is worsening, with economic data being lukewarm, but the stock index rebounding higher.
According to the Financial Association on December 27 (Editor: Huang Junzhi), 2024 is expected to be a great year for the US stock market. However, Wells Fargo & Co states that the post-election optimistic rebound may lead to a "hangover" in the stock market in the short term, and the S&P 500 Index could decline by 7%.
The bank's latest report indicates that the disconnection between the US stock market and the economy is worsening: despite the lackluster US economic data, the US stock indexes have rebounded sharply after the presidential election.
The Bloomberg US Economic Surprise Index hovers slightly above zero, tracking the relationship between economic data releases and market expectations. This indicates that there have been almost no surprises in the economic data in recent months, yet bullish sentiment continues to drive the market higher.
Wells Fargo believes that given the positive positioning levels that have emerged in the US stock market since the election, this is concerning.
The bank's senior global market strategist, Sameer Samana, wrote: "In other words, this suggests that investors are only focusing on the possibly brighter future while completely ignoring the currently disappointing data. Ultimately, we believe this disconnection needs to be addressed."
"The stock market is also flashing technical signals, indicating it is approaching an 'overbought region'; investors should 'be cautious of the hangover,'" he added.
Samana estimates that the S&P 500 Index may reach a recent peak of 6,090 points in the short term. He added that if the index trends downward, it may 'find support' around the 200-day moving average of 5,515 points, which suggests the index could potentially pull back by 7% from its current level.
However, it is worth noting that Wells Fargo & Co remains overall Bullish on the USA stock market for 2025. In a previous report, the bank forecasted that the S&P 500 Index could rise to around 6,500-6,700 points by the end of next year, indicating a strong backdrop of economic and corporate profit growth.
In addition to Samana, there are other forecasters on Wall Street who believe that, given the dazzling rise of the S&P 500 Index this year, the USA stock market could see a decline next year.
Market research firm BCA Research believes that due to stock prices being at historical highs and the potential risk of a slowdown in the USA economy, the USA stock market may enter a bear market early next year.
French bank Société Générale SA, which has been warning about a recession in the USA for the past few years, stated that it still believes there will be a "profit collapse" in the USA, with a weak labor market being clear evidence.
